When Can You Fold a Set In No Limit?

Sets are your money hands in no limit hold em, bottom line. However, while holding a set usually means you end up with a win, there are some rare times when you might want to think twice about going to showdown. While these scenarios don’t come up often, one wrong call in NL can cost you a week’s worth of profit, so it’s worth exploring some situations where you might have to toss your set. Note: when I say set, I’m referring to a pair in your hand and one of the same on the board, not one in your hand and a pair on the board. Anyhow, think twice about sticking it out if:

1) The obvious draw makes and someone is smart enough to bet it hard. Let’s say you flop a set, bet, get a few callers, and a flush makes on the turn. Someone now bets out at you. You need to consider two things before you call. First, is this person capable of pulling off a bluff or semi bluff in this situation? Take what you know about the player and also check the board for likely semi bluffs. For instance, if you saw a board of:

Ad 10c 7c Jc

There’s a decent chance that someone has two pair, aces up, with the ace of clubs for the nut flush draw, or possibly a pair, straight draw and flush draw [say they hold Kc 10h]. Especially if you’re playing against a field of 2 or less, the big semi bluff is a possibility.

Now what if you can put your opponent on a flush with reasonable certainty? If you’re pretty sure it’s not a bluff, it comes down to a simple issue of odds, actual and implied. You’re about 3-1 or better to fill up on the river, so if the pot lays you 3-1 on the call, no brainer. If the player overbets the pot severely, cutting your odds to sub 2-1, you now need to look at how much money your opponent still has left to pay you off if you hit. This calculation isn’t as straightforward as the first, because you also need to factor in the likelihood that your opponent will part with the remainder of their stack [or a decent part of it]. If a player has cut your odds to sub 3-1 with their bet and doesn’t have much more to give after the bet, or if you think the player is smart enough to get away from the flush when the river pairs the board, you should really think about laying it down.

2) Against a tight opponent: if you call a raise preflop from a tight opponent with, say, 99 and catch a set, beware if an ace or king hits – especially if the opponent check raises on the flop or comes back over the top of your raise. It is, of course, very difficult to put your opponent on a set, but you will run into those people who only raise preflop with AA or KK – and anytime a very meek player shows strength, it should make you pause. Of course this only applies if both of you still have a lot of money left after the first bets – if your opponent only has $80 more to throw into a $300 + pot, you are pretty much committed. But if you both have, say, $400 more in front, there are times, however rare, when you may have to decide that your set is no good.

3) Low set against a large field in an unraised pot: Again, this is a rare situation, but when you flop low set and you’re staring at a ragged board such as:

2d 6h 10c

You have some serious thinking to do if you get a bet and a raise before you or a massive reraise or three bet off of your bet or raise. It’s the three bet that should worry you most – that’s a strong play on a board that has basically no available draws, no likely 2 pairs, etc. Yes, someone could’ve slowplayed a big pocket pair; yes, someone could just be trying to pick up the pot with A10 – but very few players have the guts to 3 bet without a monster. If you see two raises before the action even gets to you, or if your late position bet runs into a check raise AND a check re-raise, someone else probably has a higher set.

4) When an obvious draw makes on the river against a medium to large field: I’m of the opinion that your opponents shouldn’t be seeing too many rivers against your sets, but if they do and the obvious draws make, you have to release.

Folding a set is rarely an easy move, and if you don’t see a showdown you may always suspect you fell victim to a bluff. If you did, so be it. Just keep in mind that the stronger a hand is, the harder it is to fold – and the more money you’ll lose if you can’t let go when you should.

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