The Misuse and Abuse of the Continuation Bet
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I’m sure everyone who has played the requisite number of hours of poker knows what a continuation bet is, but for those fellow degens who have yet to add this term to their poker vocabulary, a continuation bet is the bet made on the flop after you’ve raised pre-flop. Many players consider this bet nearly automatic following their pre-flop raise and some consider it necessary if they’ve narrowed the field to a few callers or less. Some players always use this tool while others use it sparingly. The benefit to betting each time is obvious – your opponents never know whether you hit, missed, or didn’t need to hit, already having a made hand. The same, however, can be argued for NOT betting each time and allowing the turn to peel-off … a foolish thought, but accurate.
Given that a standard continuation bet is going to be around half the pot, give or take, the math behind it says that in order for it to be break even, it only has to succeed about 1 in 3 times. If you find you take down the pot more frequently than this, the move has a positive expected value. Sure – I can buy this argument if we’re living in a vacuum with no other variables being introduced, like an opponent(s) calling, and in the current poker environment, opponents like to call. Lagtards lurk in every dark corner and are waiting for their opposition to take their foot off the pedal. You bet the flop, they float … a check on the turn seems to induce a near instinctual response for them to bet. It’s in their nature and they can’t help it. Obviously you’ve shown you really don’t want the pot, so they’re doing you a favor and taking the burden off your hands.
Other players don’t stop with a flop continuation bet, especially versus the more laggish opponents. They really do want the pot, and fire another bullet on the turn, convinced (or at least hoping to convince their opponent) that their unimproved AK, or 22 or 97s is the best hand. A number of the opposition may be convinced to fold after seeing a pre-flop raise and 2 shots fired, unless they’re holding at least a strong hand or a big draw. Stronger players who read you as weak may call, holding little themselves. Oblivious players, not seeing an Ace or King on the board by the turn, who for some reason predict that 98.4% of all pre-flop raises come from AK, will call you down with third pair. As a random aside, why do all weaker players read every pre-flop raise as AK and use that as justification for calling? I must have missed that poker fact somewhere but I’m sure Sklansky must have stated it in “Theory of Poker” and I merely overlooked it.
So, say you’ve fired a shot or two and decided to give up as the opponent hangs on like a love-starved pit-bull – now what? A strong player with a good read on an opponent might be able to get the villain to let go with a deliberate river bet … maybe they missed their draw, or are too weak to call off. Personally, I hate to dedicate this much time and effort (and most importantly, chips) to what might result as a lost cause when the opponent makes a “brilliant read” and calls their 2nd pair, no kicker to your near pot-sized shove. Where did you go wrong? Weren’t you representing aces the whole time? How the hell could they make that call? It has become apparent to me that there are opponents in this online poker universe who have the ability to look into their monitor and have that piercing gaze come through the ether and stare directly into your soul. The common factor many of these opponents share is an ROI akin to the average nightly temperature at the South Pole. This, however, is another article for another time.
First, before the scowls begin, let me say that I’m not averse to standard continuation betting. It has a time and place, just like any other tool you use in poker. The problem many players encounter is that this bet (or series of bets) makes pot control nearly impossible. A flop bet and call doubles the size of the starting pot. By the time you hit the turn, you’re looking at a pot that takes far more chips to take down, a pot which the opponent may also be eying hungrily. Unless you started off pretty deep, your further bets start to commit you to this pot, one that you may hope to win with a mere ace-high. I think the old adage regarding “bad money after good” may apply.
So, I’m going to propose one simple tactic to add to that ever-expanding toolbox at your disposal – the delayed continuation bet. Picture this – an opponent raises pre and you call. You check the flop (as is usually prudent versus a pre-flop raiser), and they check behind. The turn comes harmless and you check once again. This time, however, they fire 60% into the pot. Now, if you were on a draw, half your outs have evaporated (percentage-wise) as there is only one card to come. Any straight or flush draw is about 6-1 against. If you have a paired card, you’re only about 10% to make 2 pair or better. What kind of hand would raise pre-flop, check the flop, and then bet the turn? Do they have nothing and are trying to get me off the pot, or were they not afraid of what the turn would bring?
The turn continuation bet is one that works best given the texture of the board cooperates, especially if the turn brings a useful card, generally one of the Broadway persuasion. Maybe you slow-played a monster, having flopped a set … maybe your over-pair (As or Ks) doesn’t mind seeing another card fall, or maybe the turn hits you. I’ll be the first to agree that this works best with position. You’ve seen your opponent decline to bet at a pot not once but twice. If drawing, their chances are slim for completion. Top pair and 2nd pair likely would bet once the turn comes. Given the standard continuation bet is widely used, the standard continuation bet call is also quite common. I find far fewer calls when I throw the turn CB out there.
Another cute variation I do like to use once I’ve declined to bet the flop is the turn raise or check-raise. If you run the numbers, you’ll find that a raise on the turn after declining to bet the flop costs about the same number of chips as a two-barrel flop/turn bet. This can work particularly well versus an aggressive opponent who is betting any turn after you’ve shown no attempt to take down the pot on two consecutive streets. Also, the check-raise feels far stronger to most opponents, especially if they merely call and you want to take the long-ball approach and “value bet” the river.
Don’t just idly toss chips in the pot on a flop following your pre-flop raise, making a chip mountain out of a chip molehill. As with any decision in poker, think about it before dedicating your chips.
