Given that a standard continuation bet is going to be around half the pot, give or take, the math behind it says that in order for it to be break even, it only has to succeed about 1 in 3 times. If you find you take down the pot more frequently than this, the move has a positive expected value. Sure – I can buy this argument if we’re living in a vacuum with no other variables being introduced, like an opponent(s) calling, and in the current poker environment, opponents like to call. Lagtards lurk in every dark corner and are waiting for their opposition to take their foot off the pedal. You bet the flop, they float … a check on the turn seems to induce a near instinctual response for them to bet. It’s in their nature and they can’t help it. Obviously you’ve shown you really don’t want the pot, so they’re doing you a favor and taking the burden off your hands.

Other players don’t stop with a flop continuation bet, especially versus the more laggish opponents. They really do want the pot, and fire another bullet on the turn, convinced (or at least hoping to convince their opponent) that their unimproved AK, or 22 or 97s is the best hand. A number of the opposition may be convinced to fold after seeing a pre-flop raise and 2 shots fired, unless they’re holding at least a strong hand or a big draw. Stronger players who read you as weak may call, holding little themselves. Oblivious players, not seeing an Ace or King on the board by the turn, who for some reason predict that 98.4% of all pre-flop raises come from AK, will call you down with third pair. As a random aside, why do all weaker players read every pre-flop raise as AK and use that as justification for calling? I must have missed that poker fact somewhere but I’m sure Sklansky must have stated it in “Theory of Poker” and I merely overlooked it.

So, say you’ve fired a shot or two and decided to give up as the opponent hangs on like a love-starved pit-bull – now what? A strong player with a good read on an opponent might be able to get the villain to let go with a deliberate river bet … maybe they missed their draw, or are too weak to call off. Personally, I hate to dedicate this much time and effort (and most importantly, chips) to what might result as a lost cause when the opponent makes a “brilliant read” and calls their 2nd pair, no kicker to your near pot-sized shove. Where did you go wrong? Weren’t you representing aces the whole time? How the hell could they make that call? It has become apparent to me that there are opponents in this online poker universe who have the ability to look into their monitor and have that piercing gaze come through the ether and stare directly into your soul. The common factor many of these opponents share is an ROI akin to the average nightly temperature at the South Pole. This, however, is another article for another time.

First, before the scowls begin, let me say that I’m not averse to standard continuation betting. It has a time and place, just like any other tool you use in poker. The problem many players encounter is that this bet (or series of bets) makes pot control nearly impossible. A flop bet and call doubles the size of the starting pot. By the time you hit the turn, you’re looking at a pot that takes far more chips to take down, a pot which the opponent may also be eying hungrily. Unless you started off pretty deep, your further bets start to commit you to this pot, one that you may hope to win with a mere ace-high. I think the old adage regarding “bad money after good” may apply.

So, I’m going to propose one simple tactic to add to that ever-expanding toolbox at your disposal – the delayed continuation bet. Picture this – an opponent raises pre and you call. You check the flop (as is usually prudent versus a pre-flop raiser), and they check behind. The turn comes harmless and you check once again. This time, however, they fire 60% into the pot. Now, if you were on a draw, half your outs have evaporated (percentage-wise) as there is only one card to come. Any straight or flush draw is about 6-1 against. If you have a paired card, you’re only about 10% to make 2 pair or better. What kind of hand would raise pre-flop, check the flop, and then bet the turn? Do they have nothing and are trying to get me off the pot, or were they not afraid of what the turn would bring?

The turn continuation bet is one that works best given the texture of the board cooperates, especially if the turn brings a useful card, generally one of the Broadway persuasion. Maybe you slow-played a monster, having flopped a set … maybe your over-pair (As or Ks) doesn’t mind seeing another card fall, or maybe the turn hits you. I’ll be the first to agree that this works best with position. You’ve seen your opponent decline to bet at a pot not once but twice. If drawing, their chances are slim for completion. Top pair and 2nd pair likely would bet once the turn comes. Given the standard continuation bet is widely used, the standard continuation bet call is also quite common. I find far fewer calls when I throw the turn CB out there.

Another cute variation I do like to use once I’ve declined to bet the flop is the turn raise or check-raise. If you run the numbers, you’ll find that a raise on the turn after declining to bet the flop costs about the same number of chips as a two-barrel flop/turn bet. This can work particularly well versus an aggressive opponent who is betting any turn after you’ve shown no attempt to take down the pot on two consecutive streets. Also, the check-raise feels far stronger to most opponents, especially if they merely call and you want to take the long-ball approach and “value bet” the river.

Don’t just idly toss chips in the pot on a flop following your pre-flop raise, making a chip mountain out of a chip molehill. As with any decision in poker, think about it before dedicating your chips.

There are several scenarios you might be facing after raising preflop and having an opponent (or opponents) tag along. Opponents might decide to lead into you with varying levels of strength relative to the pot, or you might end up facing a bet and a raise before the action gets back to you. The most common decision you’re going to be facing, however, is whether or not you should continuation bet (commonly referred to as a c-bet by the online poker set, to whom multisyllabic words are apparently anathema).

Deciding whether or not to continuation bet is a critical decision that shouldn’t be made on impulse or feel alone. The continuation bet is a far more significant decision than the preflop raise for a couple of reasons. First of all, it involves a good amount more money than the preflop raise. Second, your choices regarding continuation bets will potentially provide your opponents with far more definitive and exploitable information about your hand and your game. Finally, bets on the flop are, in many situations, the single most important bet of the hand, as they narrow hand ranges for all players involved, set the tone for following streets, and generally determine whether or not you’ll be playing for a big pot or a small one.

This article is the first in a series of articles we’ll be publishing regarding continuation betting. As with a lot of the articles I write about no limit hold em, this article isn’t going to focus on specific prescriptions. I’m not going to tell you how often you should be continuation betting or provide a comprehensive breakdown of scenarios where you should or should not continuation bet. If this were an article about limit hold em, that would be a totally viable approach; however, the choice to continuation bet in no limit hold em is largely framed by an individual player’s style. Instead, in this first article I’m going to do a quick drill down of the relevant factors that you should be considering when you’re trying to determine what the appropriate amount of continuation betting is within the context of your game. In future articles I’ll take a more example-based approach and try to illustrate some of these factors in practice, with an eye toward tackling some of the ways that interplay between individual factors can affect your decision-making and extending the analysis to explore some common opponent reactions.

For reader reference, this article is primarily informed by play at online 6-max no limit games in the .50/1 to 2/4 range.

In no particular order, here are the factors I think you should be considering when deciding whether or not to continuation bet: Flop texture, your image, opponent image, history with opponent, stack sizes, hand strength and position. Let’s take a paragraph or two with each and talk a little bit about how they can impact the decision to continuation bet.

Flop Texture
Flop texture commonly refers to the quantity of opportunities that the flop presents. You’ll usually hear people refer to flops as existing on a spectrum from dry to wet, with ‘dry’ flops being those that present very few opportunities for made or drawing hands, and ‘wet’ flops being those that provide several opportunities. The classic example of a ‘dry’ flop is something like:

… that provides no straight draws, flush draws or likely two pair hands. An extreme example of a wet flop would look something like:

… where you have multiple straight draws, pair and draw combinations, two pair combinations and the flush draw to boot.

Flop texture can be broadly employed to determine how likely your opponent is to call or raise your continuation bet. Generally speaking, the dryer the flop, the more likely it is that your opponent will lack the hand strength to continue when you show strength on the flop. It’s important to note that flop texture isn’t something you should be evaluating in a vacuum – that is to say the tendencies of your individual opponents should certainly play a large part in determining how ‘wet’ or ‘dry’ you believe a flop to be. Some opponents will call your preflop raise with any two broadway cards, while others are far more likely to toss weak broadway hands, re-raise you with big pairs and strong aces, and look to call you with suited connectors and small to medium pairs. Against the first opponent, a flop of:

… would be pretty dry, while the same flop against the second opponent would be relatively wet, as it fits in with a lot more of his likely preflop combinations.

Flop texture is also an important thing to consider from your opponent’s point of view, as their assessment of how wet or dry the flop is relative to your likely holdings will play a role in determining whether or not they’re going to continue with the hand.

Your Image / Opponent Image
The image you have at the table is a pretty critical factor in determining the relative wisdom of continuation betting. The more definitive your image, the more weight this factor should have in your decision-making process. As always with image-related discussions, it’s important to remember that recent events generally have a disproportionate impact on your opponent’s perception of you as a player.

Generally speaking, your image will determine the credibility of your continuation bet. Aggressive players who make a lot of continuation bets will usually be given less credit for having flopped a hand, while tighter players with a lower continuation bet frequency will be given more credit. An aggressive image will also result in more opponents attempting check raises against you on the flop. The same generalization loosely applies to players with losing and winning images; losers will get less credit for their continuation bets while winners will enjoy more.

As for your opponent’s image goes, you can employ a pretty similar spectrum. Aggressive opponents are likely to play back against your continuation bet with a broad range of hands on a broad range of flops, while conservative players are likely to play their hands in a more ‘face-up’ manner.

History with an Opponent
This factor works on both a macro and micro level. Starting with the macro: past confrontations you’ve had with an opponent are going to color their perception of your image in a broad sense. Consider two players, one that you’ve raised out of pots a couple of times in recent hands and another who was at the table for all of the hands in question but hasn’t been involved in a pot with you. The first is likely to have you pegged as a far more aggressive player than the second.

As for the micro-level, you should be very aware of past interactions between you and your opponent that mirror your present situation when you’re considering a continuation bet. While people are certainly capable of adjusting their patterns, knowing how your opponent behaved in situations with strong parallels to the present (e.g. how they acted last time they called your preflop raise from the small blind and the flop brought a clear straight draw) can be a useful piece of information, especially when you find yourself in a spot where continuation betting seems fairly marginal.

Stack Sizes
Flop betting has a big impact on where the pot size eventually ends up, so the decision to continuation bet is also often a decision about whether or not to build a big pot, and the decision of whether or not you want (or need) to build a big pot often comes down to the effective stack size of your opponent(s).

Short-stacked opponents present some unique considerations, as a continuation bet often puts you in a position where you’re committed to the pot (or close to it) with a wide array of hands.

Hand Strength
Ironically, the quality of your hand is often somewhat of a secondary consideration when you’re deciding whether or not to continuation bet. Continuation betting with very strong hands is generally a solid approach, as is continuation betting with very weak hands that have very little showdown value or chance to improve. The awkward decisions come with medium-strength hands, as you find yourself having to balance various needs like pot control, extracting value, defending against draws, protecting your equity in the pot and so on.

Position
Position is a bit of a meta-factor, insomuch that impacts your consideration of all the factors described above. Generally, having position allows you to draw stronger conclusions and being out of position results in weaker conclusions.

That’s the basic overview of the factors that should come into play when you’re deciding whether or not to continuation bet after raising preflop. Again, the list isn’t meant to be a definitive treatment or an absolute prescription. Instead, it’s meant to be a starting point for dissecting the use of the continuation bet in your individual game. Future articles in this series will apply some of these factors in real-game situations with the aim of illustrating the complex interplay and balancing of competing needs that often make continuation betting decisions some of the most difficult ones you face on a regular basis at the poker table.

No-limit Texas hold’em differs from draw and stud games in the presence of a board of community cards. The three-card flop and one-card turn and river combine with the two cards in your hand to make your best poker holding. Once the flop comes, at least sixty percent of your hand is known, and that is why many players consider the play of the flop to be the most important portion of a no-limit Texas hold’em hand.

Flop Structure
If you’re new to the game of Texas hold’em and only played stud or draw before, or just video poker, you may not have heard much about the structure or texture of a flop, but it is a concept that is crucial to understand. Analyzing the structure of the flop means determining what holdings are possible or likely for your opponents based on the three cards on the board. Certain flops will mean different things for you depending on what you hold and what the action has been to this point. Playing only your own cards and not considering how the flop might have helped your opponents is a big mistake in no limit Texas hold’em.

Analyzing the Flop Structure
For example, let’s say you look down at two black aces in a $3/$6 blinds internet poker game . You bet out $50 and get called in two places. The flop comes 8d 3c 4h. This is a very non-threatening board for you. The flop structure is in your favor. There are no flush draws out there and the only real straight draw is for a player holding 5 6, a hand which only a complete maniac would call $50 pre-flop with. It is possible that someone has flopped a set but if they are you are probably going to go broke and there’s nothing you can do about it so you should discount this possibility in most cases. Your goal in this instance is to make sure your opponents stay in the hand. You should bet an amount that is big enough to build the pot, but small enough that they can call. On the other hand, let’s say the flop comes Th Jh Qh. This is a suited, well-connected board and it is a disastrous board for you. Anyone with any two hearts, AK, K9, 89, TJ, QT or QJ now has you completely crushed. You should check fold or make a small probing bet and be prepared to fold at the first sign of resistance. Making a large or worse yet all-in bet on this board would be a grievous error. A third possibility is a board like 9c Tc 6s. This is a reasonably well connected board and you should consider making a bet here that will push out drawing opponents. You are ahead of likely hands like QJ or suited hearts, but a turn card could spell big trouble, so you want to make an opponent pay to stick around and see it. A board like Jc Qc Qs presents real problems for you, as it is well connected and requires protection, but you may be way behind to someone with a queen. This structure is one that requires you tread carefully and be prepared to release.

This play works well against a thinking player that is a bit over aggressive. It involves a cute little play with the flop checkraise when out of position and the feeler raise in position. Lets break down each situation individually. We are going to assume for these exercises that you have a tight , solid image and your opponent has an image of being solid, but aggressive and makes the obligatory continuation bet a bit too often.

Lets take the play in position first as it’s a bit easier to play. I like to play most hands with position on my opponent. I can control the action a bit better and control the pot size to a manageable level. Lets say for example were in a 2-4 blinds NL game and we have a stack of $400. Our opponents have the same stack sizes as us.

Opponent open raises in MP to $14.00 and you decide to float the opponent with a tight image with the 7s 5s. Everyone else folds and you are heads up with your opponent in position.

The flop comes As 9c 6h leaving you nothing but a gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. Now your opponent bets $20.00 into the pot of $34.00. This should be identified as a standard continuation bet. Now, your opponent being a solid player can make this continuation bet with anything from top set to air in this situation.

Now, the things that set this hand up for this play are that the board is uncoordinated, and you do have some outs. However, its not a draw where you can call this bet. If you do indeed have a tight, solid image the play is to raise here on occasion to $50-$55.00. This looks like a value raise to a solid player and it represents at least a strong ace. More than likely if your opponent doesn’t have at least a strong ace, he isn’t going to stick around. He is going to fold.

Obviously , you don’t want to make this play against a calling station as the fold equity must be relatively high. Also, if you get called, you do have some outs and are in position to take a free card on the turn should you choose to. I would recommend taking the free card as your second barrel (should you choose to fire it) is a big favorite to be called. However, the success rate of this play when used in moderation against thinking opponents is very good.

Lets examine the play when it happens and you are out of position. This will usually occur when someone in late position raises on a steal, and you call from the big blind with a suspect hand.

Same setup of 2-4 NL, stacks of 400 each. Folded to your opponent who makes it $14.00 to go from the cutoff seat, button and small blind fold, and you call from the big blind with 6c 8c.

The flop comes Ac 9s 5d. This situation is similar as before but you check to the raiser and he bets $20.00. You then stall and pull the check raise to $65.00 total. The reason that the check raise needs to be bigger is the fact that it needs to have some leverage to drive the opponent out. A checkraise to $50-55 is a bit easier to call.

Now this play must not be used very often from the big blind in this situation. A very special set of circumstances must be met. The opponent must be a aggressive player that is capable of laying down a hand. You must also have a tight, solid image bordering on nut peddler status and the board must be a very dry one. There shouldn’t be any real draws out there. The reason why this play should not be performed too often is that the flop checkraise out of position is overused and less likely to be believed. If you were to break it down as far as usage, I would use this play only one time for every four times I use the other play in position. Another reason you shouldn’t use this play nearly as much is that it is highly volatile being out of position. The check raise can get expensive when you are wrong. Also, if your checkraise on the flop gets called, you are not likely to get a free card on the turn. You will in fact then have to fire a large second barrel when you miss, or give up on the hand.

This play is only a change up type of play that can add to your hourly earn but if you use it more than you should you can actually hurt your bottom line. it’s a nice play to feel good about yourself once in a while when you win a pot you shouldn’t. It actually has a high success rate when used properly. Good luck at the tables.