Answering these questions is a reflex for successful tournament players, but newer players and intermediate players often fail to realize that evaluating the table dynamic thoroughly is essentially the only way (save getting pretty lucky) that you can transform a shorter stack into a stack that can compete for the win. To put it more succinctly: if you don’t pick up some pots uncontested with a 10-25BB stack as the bubble approaches, you’re going to need a ton of luck to make the money, let alone make the final table.

In this two-part article, we’ll break down the factors that will allow you to hopefully generate the best answer to each question. We’re not going to discuss hand strength in detail – this isn’t an article that will tell you to push X hand in Y spot. Instead, we’re going to try and define the most optimal spots for blind stealing and light three betting regardless of cards. Part one focuses on the question of stealing blinds, and part two will tackle the question of three betting.

This article assumes you’re at a stage of the tournament where antes have kicked in. If they haven’t, or if you’re playing a tournament without antes, you should just adjust all of your assumptions in a more conservative direction to compensate for the decreased reward (i.e., the smaller starting pot size).

WHAT’S MY BEST SPOT FOR STEALING THE BLINDS?
When you have a stack of 8BBs – 13BBs, your number one concern has to be identifying optimal spots for stealing the blinds. What distinguishes a good spot from a bad spot? There are a few key factors to consider.

Number of players to act behind
This one’s pretty simple on the surface: The more players to act behind you, the greater the chance that someone will wake up with a hand willing to call you. Let’s say you somehow know for certain that everyone at the table will only call with 99+ and AQ+. That’s roughly 5% of all possible hands. If you raise first to act at a nine handed table, that leaves 8 players still to act, meaning you’ll get called about 40% of the time (the actual number is a bit lower, but this is close enough for our discussion). If you raise from the button with only two players to act, you’re only getting called 10% of the time. That gap is huge, and seems to suggest that the later you raise, the better your chance for success.

Unfortunately, real poker tables don’t behave quite as neatly as our hypothetical one. For one thing, the earlier a raise is, the more respect it commands (generally speaking), and the more pressure it places on players on your immediate left, as they have to worry about all of the players still to act. Raises from the button and the cutoff have become so standard that players are calling those raises with a much wider range than top 5%.

There’s also the critical issue of opportunity. While later position raises may seem more favorable, the later you are the more likely it is that someone will open the pot in front of you. If you’re looking to steal the blinds, you (with very few exceptions) want to be the first player in the pot.

So, to summarize: early position brings with it the advantages of being able to represent strength and a greater opportunity to open the pot, but the disadvantage of a significantly larger chance of being called by a strong hand. Later position raises have the advantage of a smaller chance of being called by a strong hand, but the disadvantages of fewer opportunities to open the pot and less ability to represent strength.

Opponent tendencies
This is a fairly straightforward factor. Against tighter opponents, your steal has a greater chance of success; against looser opponents, your steal has a lower chance of success.

Of particular interest to you are the tendencies of your opponents in the blinds. These are the spots that are generally going to give the most thought to calling you with the broadest range, not only because they already have money invested, but because they either get to close the action in the BB or have only one more player to worry about behind in the SB. Their tendencies should, generally speaking, trump your considerations of the tendencies of the other players still to act – so, if you’re two seats off the button and are considering stealing, you’d rather have loose players on the cutoff and button and tight players in the blinds than tight players in the cutoff and button and loose players in the blinds.

Another thing to consider about your opponents is their recent activity. While tendencies certainly vary by player, I’ve found that opponents with smaller to average stacks who just won a pot are less likely to get involved without a hand, while larger stacked opponents who just lost a hand are more likely to get involved. Again, these are broad generalizations that vary wildly by buy in level, so make a point of paying attention to how players at your level seem to react immediately after winning or losing a pot.

So, to summarize: Tighter opponents make for more successful steals, especially if your opponents in the blinds are tight.

Stack sizes
It’s my opinion that the best stack size to steal against when you’re a short stack is a stack in the 25-30BB range. When you have a larger stack, these types of stacks are less attractive targets because of their ability to three bet you, but when you’re short, you’re usually putting most or all of your stack in preflop, so the threat of a three bet is moot.

Why 25-30BBs? These stacks exist at a nice intersection for your steal attempt. They’re small enough that they can’t call your raises lightly, as they’re be committing a third to half of their stack, and they’re large enough that your opponents won’t be feeling much pressure to get involved in a hand. That’s two strong factors that (generally) are going to limit your opponent’s calling range to very strong hands. Smaller stacks will be more in tune with your small stack mindset, making them more likely to assign you a wide range, and will be feeling the pressure of the blinds and antes, making them more likely to commit with a wider range. As stacks move north of 30BBs, players become more willing to gamble, especially if they’re in the BB. Take a typical scenario in the late stages of a tournament where the blinds are 500 / 1000 with 100 antes. Let’s say you have 9k in the CO and the BB has 36k. The table folds to you and you raise. The button and SB fold.

How does this look from the BB’s perspective? They’re looking at calling 8k more to win your 9k plus the 2500 or so already in the pot, so they’re getting almost 1.5-1, and if they call and lose, they’ll still have a healthy stack. That’s a recipe for a wide calling range.

Again, the critical players to pay attention to are the blinds. The stacks in between you and blinds are certainly relevant, but the players most likely to call your raise light are almost always the blinds. The exception to that rule is when you have an exceedingly large or short stack in between you and the blinds.

In a nutshell: Look for medium-sized stacks to steal against, and if you can’t find those, prefer shorter stacks to larger stacks.

Miscellaneous Factors
In addition to the above, you should also consider your image (tighter is better for raising light), what stage the tournament is at (your raises will probably get more respect from short and medium stacks if you’re near the bubble but far less respect from bigger stacks), the buy in level (the higher the buy in, the more likely that players in the blinds will call you properly, which is to say with a wider range) and, of course, your cards (even though you’re stealing, it’s still nice to have some backup).

Summary
When you find yourself in a tournament with a dwindling stack, you need to turn your attention immediately to identifying your best opportunities to steal the blinds. While there’s no absolute formula for picking an optimal spot, a thorough consideration of the above factors will help you move beyond the blunt strategy of simply hoping the table folds to you in late position.

In the next part of the article, we’ll look at how these factors (along with some others) can be used to help you identify the best spots for three betting light preflop.

Beggar bets are generally used by the average player for value betting or for attempting to lure an opponent into calling against a very strong hand. Because of this common use, beggar bets should also be able to be used effectively as bluffs in many games. While it’s certainly not a play you want to trot out a dozen times each session, if you use it judiciously it can be an excellent addition to your cash game arsenal.

This article will provide some quick guidelines for using the beggar bet to bluff. As with any no limit cash strategy, the actual application is really context-reliant, so be sure to consider the specific nature of your style, opponents, and so on when attempting any theoretical move in actual game play. For reference, I tend to play 1-2 to 4-8 NL online, more often 6 max or shorthanded than full ring.

ADVANTAGES
The core advance of the beggar bluff is that it’s very cheap. If you’re only risking a quarter of the pot on your bluff, then you just don’t have to be successful very often to show a profit. A second major advantage is the fact that, in several types of games and against several types of opponents, it’s a very effective bluff, simply because it’s a bet that’s generally made when a person is fairly strong. That combination of low risk and frequent success makes the beggar bluff a strong move when smartly executed.

Beyond those core advantages, the beggar bluff also can be used to negate positional advantages and can also be used effectively as a set up play, especially in shorthanded situations. If an opponent folds to your small bluff once or twice, they’re likely to assume you always bet small when strong, which is a great image to work from if you can put together a small run of cards.

DISADVATAGES
Obviously the move can’t be all awesomeness and absolute profit, or you’d see people using it far more often than you currently do. Small bets and raises have their upside, but they also open you up to serious risks. The first is that the beggar bluff is often too affordable for your opponent, and may motivate them to call down or draw with hands that they’d fold to a more normal-sized bet. That leads us to the second major issue – if you don’t end the hand with the beggar bluff, it’s very hard to know where you stand on the next street. Larger bets tend to define your opponent’s hand, but you have to dramatically expand their possible range if they we calling at the typical odds a beggar bluff offers (somewhere from 3-6 to 1, typically).

Other things to consider: when you make a beggar bluff bet in position or raise your opponent with a beggar bluff, you’re reopening the betting, which is something you might regret if you’re semi-bluffing. You can also quickly build a decent sized pot with such bets – and when you combine that with the fact that your opponent can be calling you with a wide range, future streets can end up playing very awkwardly. You’ll probably be put in a lot of spots where you’ve built a pot with your bluff and you can find a few good reasons to fire another bluff on the next street.

PREFERRED OPPONENTS
As with any play, this one works better against some types of opponents than others. It’s also worth noting that different types of opponents respond in different ways depending on how you’re playing, so it’s always a good idea to consider your opponent’s style relative to your own, and not just how they’re generally playing.

With that said, the first criteria for your preferred opponent is that they have to be smart enough to fold. Past that, you’d prefer to be making these types of moves against players who are firing off a decent amount of bets, and therefore are more likely to be betting with nothing when you decide to bluff. Against an aggressive opponent, you’d probably prefer someone who’s about midway between TAG and LAG, as the loose-aggressive types will call your bet a lot more liberally, hurting your success rate. Bluffs on the turn are generally successful against such types.

A second preferred opponent type would be a tight-weak player, especially one who’s put together a bit of a win already that session. A good amount of tight-weak players are willing to make continuation bets on the flop or semi-bluff in position. Flop raises or turn leads are generally good options against this type

PREFERRED SITUATIONS
I’m hesitant to recommend hyper-specific situations for the beggar bluff, as we all know that heavily prescriptive advice is a dangerous thing, so I’ll offer up some general guidelines and spots to hopefully get you thinking about where the beggar bluff might fit best in your game.

Generally speaking, I think these bets have the best chance of success when the pot is medium-sized (think 5-25 BBs) and on your brickier, or drier, boards. Large pots tend to motivate people to call looser, and small pots don’t allow you to pose a significant enough of a thread with your bet. As for the board, bluffing on a draw-filled board is always tough, since your opponent might be calling on a draw or be willing to call with weaker holding if they believe that you’re on a draw.

Some generic spots where you might find success with the beggar bluff:

1. As a turn checkraise on a bricky board against an aggressive opponent capable of firing two continuation bets
2. On a paired board heads up against a scared opponent
3. As a checkraise on the river when a lot of draws miss
4. As a raise on the river against a blocking bet when a lot of draws get there
5. As a lead on the river when you’ve called a bet or two and a draw gets there

POSTSCRIPT
Hopefully this was a useful discussion of a bet that you might want to integrate into your game. Once you think about the bet a little more, you’ll probably quickly come to recognize multi-street combinations that you can use this bet in, but that’s a discussion best saved for another article.

The first two parts of this article discussed some of the benefits of floating with outs. The primary benefit being that you will get paid huge then you make your hand. The side effect to this is that when you go to showdown it will massively change your image. Not only were you drawing without odds, but the equity you have will be so incredibly well hidden from your opponents that it is unlikely anyone will understand why you called. Most players will access your play based off these extreme situations, and they are likely to change the range of hands they will put you on when calling, as well as their ability to bluff you. This can be very good for you if used properly.

1- Players that routinely continuation bets the flop, may pass on their continuation bet against you when they miss.

2- Players that raise draws may reconsider raising their draw against you.

3- Players that “bet to find out where they are” may feel that their bets do not buy information against you.

This all leads to one extremely beneficial conclusion, players will be more likely to play less deceptively against you. The power of your position is far greater when your opponents play predictably.

I do not suggest trying to obtain the donkey image to setup a better game for yourself later, just as i don’t recommend stealing when you don’t expect it to work just to get action later. Pick your spots carefully, do your best to not get caught stealing (or semi floating) but when you do, kick in a little extra effort to figure out exactly who noticed, and how their play has changed vs. you.

Finally spots to watch out for after getting caught:

1- against an aggressive maniac, a donkey image is likely to not work. They are maniacs because they don’t chose their opponents or spots carefully. They are used to people making bad calls against them, and they are far more likely to fire an extra barrel or two in later streets. Your image will likely shutdown only the marginally creative/aggressive players, not the nuts.

2- True donkeys don’t know their own kind. They aren’t likely to change their play against you at all. They are there to gamble, so your play looks natural to them.

3- Some players will overvalue top pair against you because they may believe you are calling with trash, and will fire a second barrel when they otherwise would not, so just calling on the flop will not be scary to the observant player. Define more hands with flop raises than normal (draws included) after you get caught semi floating.

4- After a particularly nasty suck out, some players tilt. Some seek vengeance sickouts. Proceed against your victim with caution.

5- Some players will get the “fear any two” syndrome against you. These players will often make themselves apparent with body language, chat, or play. “God he sucked out again.” Is a good indicator. When drawing with a legitimate hand such as a flush-draw, you will have a lot more spots to represent straights or two pair against these players. They will pride themselves on making “good lay downs”. Abuse them.

Read Part 1 of this article
Read Part 2 of this article

While answering a post on the Parttimepoker forums about floating I described calling a bet that I wouldn’t normally call because it allowed me to use my position to steal later in the hand. My fellow posters didn’t consider it floating because I had a somewhat reasonable number of possible outs. I argued that it was floating because I would have folded this hand if I believed he was strong, thus drawing to a gut-shot was an unprofitable prospect if I was looking to get paid proper odds on this long shot. I ended up calling the play a “semi-float”, as bluffing with a draw would be a “semi bluff”.

The general rule is: don’t draw to a long-shot if you don’t feel you will get paid enough to warrant the call when you get there… But to me this rule has always seemed flawed. If you don’t feel you are likely to get paid off when you hit a disguised hand, then that must mean your opponent is likely to fold his hand on many occasions later in the hand when you don’t improve as well. Maybe you believe he is just continuation betting, and if you hit you won’t get paid because he has only ace high. Part one of this
article discussed spots where you might call on the flop with nothing at all because you believe you can steal the pot later in the hand, but why call with nothing when you can call with something unlikely.

A scenario:

My opponent raised 3x BB pre-flop in late position and I called on the button with TJs. Both blinds fold.
My opponent will always continuation bet against one opponent.
My opponent will almost always bet the turn if he believes he has the best hand.
My opponent will usually check the turn if he suspects he is beat.
My opponent knows where the fold button is.

Flop Ks 9c4h

My opponent leads for 5BB.

Holding a 3 flush and a gut shot there are a lot of good turns for me, but not many that make me a winner on the turn. Drawing to the gut shot here is an unprofitable play if you believe your opponent is unlikely to pay 11-1 when you hit, and will go to showdown when you miss. So to make calling here you must either believe your opponent will pay you handsomely when you hit, or will abandon his bluff on the turn and you and pick up the pot a substantial portion of the time without improving. (I will avoid
the complicated option of raising on the turn when you pickup additional outs and believe a bluff is best).

Compare this scenario (changing only the flop) to the common spot players float:

Kd8c4h flop instead of our flop.

When my opponent decides to bet the turn after our flop call in the first scenario there are a bunch of spots where we will have a strong hand on the turn by either picking up the nut straight, or a flush draw in addition to the gut shot. As an added bonus if the flush makes on the river, we have called a flop bet, making that flush very unlikely. If we were wrong, and our opponent actually had a strong holding we may end up getting our 11-1 or better after all. In the second scenario this can never happen.

When attempting a semi float remember that any obvious draw cannot be present (or you must know your opponent so well as to know he won’t put you on a draw). If you
try and “semi float” when there are more obvious draws present, your opponents are likely to be suspicious of you just calling on a draw. An opponent that believes
you to be on a draw will be more compelled to protect a much more marginal hand than if you could only have called with something that beats him or virtually nothing at all. In both of the above examples this is not a possibility due to the nature of the board.

The final thought on this section is focused your image again. By floating this horrible draw in the first part, when you hit and get paid your opponents aren’t likely to realize that you intended to steal the pot on a later street. Your image will change. People will continuation bet against you less, because you might call them with nothing. So even while the stars must align for a float to be profitable in the first place, once you think the right spot has come but you are wrong and your opponents have seen that you will call the flop with nothing at all, then you shouldn’t try again for quite some time. Most opponents are scared to fire the second bet on the turn because they believe you have to have something to call the flop, and since they did it on an uncoordinated board, then you must have a pair, likely with the intention of going to showdown with it. When
they see that this is not the case, most reasonable opponents will play much less predictably by either betting the flop less, or betting the turn more.

Read Part 1 of this article
Read Part 3 of this article

Floating is calling a bet on the flop without odds to make a perceived winning hand. This article will discuss the float, but before we get started, I feel a few words on fold equity are necessary:

The most dangerous term in poker for a new player is “fold equity”. Fold equity is the improved equity you gain by being the aggressor in a pot. Since you don’t have to have the best hand when your opponent folds, your equity goes to 100% when you can win without showdown. Estimating this equity is FAR more difficult than estimating your odds to win on showdown, and trying to add this into an already very complicated equation to determine if a bet is correct can lead players down a path to maniacal play.

Without any kind of odds, including perceived implied odds, calling bets seems wrong to most profitable players. Why on earth would you call a bet without even perceived implied odds? Surely folding or raising would be better since you want to win the pot without going to showdown. After all, those donkey calls your opponents make are why you’re profitable… You make this call to take the pot away on a later street. Why wait till a later street?

1) Turn raises, or bets are scarier to most opponents than flop bets.

2) Pot control: if your opponent has a draw, they might be willing to make a 3 bet on the flop as a re-steal, but once you advance to the turn their odds of improving on showdown (when they miss the turn) go down dramatically.

Floating is an excellent way to maximize “fold equity”, therefore it is also a very dangerous tool. Use it with caution. Before planning to execute a float go through this check list:

1) Am I heads up? Floating is a play to be used only when you can go to the turn heads up. It is not necessary that you are heads up on the flop, but rather that every other opponent besides you and the bettor are out before you call.

2) Am I in position? 99% of the time floating out of position is a mistake. If you can’t identify the 1% right now, don’t try. Floating is a dangerous enough tool that position is a must.

3) Is my opponent predictable? Know your opponent well! Will I know better where he is at on the turn? If your opponent routinely continuation bets the flop and gives up on the turn when he doesn’t like his hand, then this could be a good spot.

4) If you don’t have any form of draw, does he? If you hold complete trash, the board must be very uncoordinated. If he even believes you are on a draw
then it might be harder for you to take the pot away from him if he’s not stone cold bluffing.

5) Do you believe your opponent is likely to be bluffing at this flop? It is important both that your opponent is likely to have missed the flop, and that he is wiling to fold his hand on the turn for the play to work. Don’t float a donkey.

Some other thoughts:

Sometimes an ace or king on the board are good for floating, sometimes they aren’t. That ace might scare your opponent into playing predictably on later streets, or it might make it more likely he hit his hand.

Once you get caught floating, your image will change dramatically. Many beginner players don’t know this play even exists, so executing it will likely confuse them. When many beginner players get confused at your play they label you as a certain type of fish, use this to your advantage.

The next article will deal with “semi floating”, or “floating with outs”, this is an even more dangerous tool, but I believe it is far superior in the right spots.

Read Part 2 of this article

This play works well against a thinking player that is a bit over aggressive. It involves a cute little play with the flop checkraise when out of position and the feeler raise in position. Lets break down each situation individually. We are going to assume for these exercises that you have a tight , solid image and your opponent has an image of being solid, but aggressive and makes the obligatory continuation bet a bit too often.

Lets take the play in position first as it’s a bit easier to play. I like to play most hands with position on my opponent. I can control the action a bit better and control the pot size to a manageable level. Lets say for example were in a 2-4 blinds NL game and we have a stack of $400. Our opponents have the same stack sizes as us.

Opponent open raises in MP to $14.00 and you decide to float the opponent with a tight image with the 7s 5s. Everyone else folds and you are heads up with your opponent in position.

The flop comes As 9c 6h leaving you nothing but a gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. Now your opponent bets $20.00 into the pot of $34.00. This should be identified as a standard continuation bet. Now, your opponent being a solid player can make this continuation bet with anything from top set to air in this situation.

Now, the things that set this hand up for this play are that the board is uncoordinated, and you do have some outs. However, its not a draw where you can call this bet. If you do indeed have a tight, solid image the play is to raise here on occasion to $50-$55.00. This looks like a value raise to a solid player and it represents at least a strong ace. More than likely if your opponent doesn’t have at least a strong ace, he isn’t going to stick around. He is going to fold.

Obviously , you don’t want to make this play against a calling station as the fold equity must be relatively high. Also, if you get called, you do have some outs and are in position to take a free card on the turn should you choose to. I would recommend taking the free card as your second barrel (should you choose to fire it) is a big favorite to be called. However, the success rate of this play when used in moderation against thinking opponents is very good.

Lets examine the play when it happens and you are out of position. This will usually occur when someone in late position raises on a steal, and you call from the big blind with a suspect hand.

Same setup of 2-4 NL, stacks of 400 each. Folded to your opponent who makes it $14.00 to go from the cutoff seat, button and small blind fold, and you call from the big blind with 6c 8c.

The flop comes Ac 9s 5d. This situation is similar as before but you check to the raiser and he bets $20.00. You then stall and pull the check raise to $65.00 total. The reason that the check raise needs to be bigger is the fact that it needs to have some leverage to drive the opponent out. A checkraise to $50-55 is a bit easier to call.

Now this play must not be used very often from the big blind in this situation. A very special set of circumstances must be met. The opponent must be a aggressive player that is capable of laying down a hand. You must also have a tight, solid image bordering on nut peddler status and the board must be a very dry one. There shouldn’t be any real draws out there. The reason why this play should not be performed too often is that the flop checkraise out of position is overused and less likely to be believed. If you were to break it down as far as usage, I would use this play only one time for every four times I use the other play in position. Another reason you shouldn’t use this play nearly as much is that it is highly volatile being out of position. The check raise can get expensive when you are wrong. Also, if your checkraise on the flop gets called, you are not likely to get a free card on the turn. You will in fact then have to fire a large second barrel when you miss, or give up on the hand.

This play is only a change up type of play that can add to your hourly earn but if you use it more than you should you can actually hurt your bottom line. it’s a nice play to feel good about yourself once in a while when you win a pot you shouldn’t. It actually has a high success rate when used properly. Good luck at the tables.

So why should you reraise bluff? Because when you reraise, it means someone raised so the pot you are picking up has to be at least a decent size. Furthermore, not betting out first allows you to gain more information on your opponents.

RERAISING PREFLOP

Normally when you make a play like this, you want to do it when your opponent is bluffing as well and is extremely likely to fold to a raise. If you think someone is stealing blinds preflop (usually a button or cut off raiser with everyone behind him folding), don’t be afraid to reraise them from the small or big blind. Even if they call, you can bet out on the flop and they will most likely fold if they didn’t catch (which is more likely than them catching). Good hands for doing this with are low suited connectors because even if he calls you probably have two live cards and could easily suck out.

RERAISING ON THE FLOP

A lot of flops are good for reraise bluffing and a lot of flops aren’t. Flops with a low pair or three cards under 10 are good. Keep in mind your opponents might call if they don’t think you have anything so be sure you can think of a plausible hand you could be reraising with. If you called a big bet preflop and reraise on flop 237, people usually suspect something. Also, when you reraise on the flop, you usually want to have some sort of drawing hand, something like an outside straight draw or even just two overs might be good enough. This way if your bluff goes wrong you still have a chance of catching something. Besides this, it is a good idea to check in an early position and then wait and see what your opponents do. If someone makes a small weak bet after raising big preflop, it is a good bet that they are trying to protect their good hand but haven’t caught anything. If a strong bet is made, you want to fold.

WHO TO RERAISE

The type of people you should be reraise bluffing are the tight aggressive ones that you know will raise with a weak hand or bluff easily. However, you should not get confused between loose and aggressive players. If you see a player is calling everything even with mid pair, it is probably a good idea not to reraise bluff him, even if you feel he doesn’t have a hand.

HOW MUCH TO RERAISE

A lot of the time, a min raise will work, but this is only if your opponent is bluffing and is also a weak player. However, it is also a foolish idea to reraise very large amounts (like all your chips). Instead, you must take into account the situation and the player. A good general sized reraise would be maybe 1.5 times the initial raise or if the pot is big, half the pot. You should also consider how much you’re willing to risk in this reraise. If someone raises 300 into a pot of 1200, it seems like a good time to reraise, but if you only have 2000 chips left, you might consider just folding unless you are sure you can push him out.

WHAT IF THEY CALL?

If they call the reraise, it is a safe bet that they have a hand. However, it is also possible they have a draw. Here you’d have to size up your opponent and really think if they would have called with a weak hand. Usually, the amount of time they take to decide to call can be an indicator as to how strong their hand is: the longer they take, the more unsure they are. A good guideline here is your opponents chip stack. If he is a middle stack like you should be, he probably has a strong hand. If he’s high, he could be on a draw and is also probably unwilling to risk losing a large portion of his chip stack. If he’s low, then you don’t have to worry too much about losing much more if you continue bluffing. However, the safest bet is to check the turn and see how your opponent acts, especially if you have some kind of draw. If he checks, then he is scared and you might be able to bet again on the river (if the turn and river are favorable), but if he bets, you should probably fold.

Hopefully you learned a couple of things from this article and I hope you’ll be reraising a lot of players out of their money soon.

Perhaps this article would be more appropriately titled: “Don’t bluff in low-limit cash games and low buy-in tournaments.” I think most online players who play these kinds of games – those who are trying to build bankrolls, or who are trying to win lots of smaller games to profit – will agree that you can usually throw Super System out the window.

That’s not to say that there aren’t aggressive players who are constantly raising the pots with bad cards in these games who do well. But I do think that there are many more successful players who play a much different kind of game to make a profit.

So, to be clear, we’re talking about limit cash games (where the blinds are $3-$6 or less, and low buy-in tournaments (both small sit and gos and multi-table tournaments, I’d say this can be applied all the way up to $11 buy in games, and perhaps even higher in some instances). This does not apply to no-limit games of any type, even .1-.2 blind games, where bluffing can be very effective even with the smallest of blinds and small starting pots.

Let’s start with low-limit games:

LOW-LIMIT CASH GAMES

Why shouldn’t I bluff?

Think about it like this. If you’ve played in brick and mortar limit games, you know how this goes. Have you ever played a $1-$2, $2-$4 or $3-$6 game at a casino? Some hands end preflop, but not many. There’s always a few players who will call a raise with more-than-marginal hands and try to get lucky. Once a hand gets past the flop, there’s often going to be a showdown. And there’s often going to be raising. And re-raising. The pots get large enough that players simply have to call, just because it’s silly to fold (even with marginal hands) when you only have to pay a few dollars for a pot worth potentially several times more than that.

The simple lesson is this: Bluffing doesn’t usually pay. And if you read strategy books (everyone playing limit poker needs to read Lee Jones’ “Winning Low-Limit Hold’em” and immediately commit it to memory) they’ll usually tell you the same thing. There are times and boards that you might be able to bluff at, but overall playing solid, tight poker is a better idea than making plays at pots.

And above, I was talking about real-life examples of low-limit poker. Apply this to the mirco level of limit poker (.02-.05 up to .50-1.00) that exists only in cyberspace, and the problem is exacerbated. Four cents to call a raise? Who’s not willing to gamble with four cents? Almost everyone. Bluffing in these games often only wins you a small pot, and can end up costing you a lot if you continue a bluff..
The math behind not bluffing

This is a pretty basic concept for most poker players, but it’s worth talking about it. While almost everyone who plays these days knows what pot odds are and can use them for making decisions on whether or not to call, people often don’t think of it in reverse in limit games – making a decision on whether or not you should bet because of the pot odds other players might get when they call.

Think of this example. Let’s say you’re playing a full .50-1.00 game.You’re sitting three in front of the button with one limper so far. You have 3-8os and decide, “I’m going to try to steal the pot.” You raise. All it really takes is one caller for you to be screwed. The pot at this time contains a limp and the blinds, or $1.25, and you’ve just bet $1 into the pot. You’ve certainly made it more difficult to limp and you’ll get rid of hands as bad as yours. But anyone who is calling with no money already invested is getting about 2:1, meaning hands with potential might still call, despite your raise. If they put you on anything but a huge hand JJ-AA, they aren’t going to be too far behind. And it’s not even so much about pot odds as it is “Oh, I only have to spend another $1 to see a flop.” You’ve obviously made the decision tougher, but lots of hands will call. And in limit people know their pot odds will only get better as the hand goes one, unless more than one person is raising the pot.

And that’s just considering people who have no money invested. The big blind and the limper only have to call .50 more into a $2.25 pot, and one or both of them is likely to call. The best case scenario is everyone folds. And in low-limit games, that’s not going to happen very often. Next best is one person calls, which is also possible but also not likely. Because of the small amounts of money involved, you can throw some traditional poker theory out the window and expect several people to call your raise, even if they shouldn’t. And now you’re screwed.

Continuing the bluff against one or even two players might work, sometimes. And you’ll have picked up a small pot. But a far more likely scenario is that you are going to end up costing yourself another bet, or several more if you continue to bluff, as you get called down to the river.

I’d argue you’re better off investing bets into prospecting with good drawing hands, rather than attempting to bluff with truly bad hands in the kinds of games we’re talking about. Pulling off a bluff in these situations is hard to do, and you can lose a lot of money (5 bets) if you are the initial raiser preflop and you bet every round). A better idea for those five bets would be a.) hold onto them for raising with good hands when you’re ahead or b.) limping in late position with a decent hand when you are being offered good pot odds.

But what if you’re dead set on bluffing? Here’s some things you can do, and a lot of this follows classic strategy:
When can/should I bluff?

For any of these scenarios, “should” might be too strong of a word:

Preflop, late position, no callers.

If you’re on the button, or even one in front, betting into the blinds might not be a bad idea. They’re not getting the kind of pot odds they would have gotten had earlier positions called before your raise. So both blinds might have to have a decent hand to consider calling. They might anyway, but that’s a risk you take when you bluff these games.

Postflop, late position. ragged board, three or fewer players.

When I say ragged, I mean ragged. Think J-7-2 rainbow. You have a chance that no one hit their hand, and you can with the pot right then.

The semibluff

If you’re going to bluff, at least do it with not awful hands. Playing 6-7s for a raise is a lot smarter than playing J-2 for a raise. You have several ways to win a pot, and you’re more likely to have live cards against your competition.

That’s about it. Once again, this is only advice. But I don’t think bluffing in situations other than these will make you much money in the long term. The risk/reward is a lot less than other ways you have at your disposal to spend your bets.

Now, let’s take a look at bluffing in low buy-in tournaments:
LOW BUY-IN TOURNAMENTS
Why shouldn’t I bluff?

I’ll preface this by saying that bluffing can be a much better strategy in tournaments than in limit poker. But it’s still not a good idea. Here’s a few reasons why.

People play loose early

People playing tournaments at low buy-ins are often looking to build their stacks early (aren’t we all?). Some players are willing to race, and sacrifice their buy-in, for a chance to take an early chip lead. That leaves stone-cold bluffs early in tourneys looking silly and hurting the player’s chances of cashing. Because if a player thinks they are racing with overcards or against a lower pair, it won’t be easy to get them off their hand. The smaller the tournament, the less this is a problem. Nine-man SnGs might have a better chance of avoiding these kinds of players. But playing a $1.10 MTT, there will be lots of players hoping to get lucky and playing mid pairs and their aces in an attempt to double up early.

You don’t have a lot of chips to bluff with

In the typical PokerStars SnG, you have 1500 chips. Even at the early stages of a tournament, a bluff that gets called down is going to hurt you badly, and the rewards can be pretty small if you happen to win a bluff. Let’s say your in the third hand, still with 1500 chips, blinds at $10-$20. With no callers so far. A successful bluff probably requires you to bet at least 4-5x the big blind. So you’ll be betting 100 chips or 6.7% of your chips. And you’re investing that much to win a pot that currently contains $30 in tournament chips. And if you do get called, by say one player, you’re going to have to make another big bet if you plan on continuing your bluff. So with $230 in the pot, you’ll need to make at least a half-pot size bet to take it down. So $230 plus the $100 you aleady bet, and you’re risking a fifth of your chips on a bluff. Simply put, that’s a lot of chips to put into play.

Once again, you can certainly play like this and win. But I’ll say you are better off using those bets for raising with good hands or calling with good draws in low buy-ins

So, when might be the best times to bluff? Some of the same basic principles apply as the limit games (preflop late position with no callers, postflop late position with a ragged board and the semibluff). I’d say the first two are not as a good of an idea, for reasons just discussed regarding your chip stack, but that the semibluff is acceptable early.

But there are other times when bluffing might be opportune:

Playing behind a big stack followed by a small stack.

Here’s the premise behind this play. Let’s say you haven’t done much, treading water at about 1,500 chips. Blinds are 25-50. You’re on the button. So far a big stack (3,500K left) and a small stack (900 left) have limped in front of you. A pot-size bet is a good bet here, in my opinion. The big stack has already run his chips up early. He’s likely pretty happy that he more than doubled up early in the tourney, and he’s probably not interested in giving those chips back with a marginal hand. He might still play really loose, but chances are he’ll tighten up a bit. And you have protection behind him. In a low buy-in tournament, the big stack probably knows that if he calls, and the small stack also calls, that he may have to cover the small stack’s entire stack by the flop. And that’s not a great play for the big stack. So he’s likely to get out of your way, not wanting to call the all in.

The small stack is also not likely to simply call your bet. If he had a hand, he would have likely raised into the big stack, hoping to get paid off. So he’s very likely to let this go as well. In deep stack higher buy-in tournaments this may not be that great a play, but it can work in small stack smaller buy-in events.

Tight early, then bluff late when you have a decent stack

Even in low buy-ins, play will tighten up closer to the cash. This makes it a better time to bluff for you. Knowing everyone is now hoping to cash, you can take advantage of the tighter play. Here’s why: A cash to someone playing in a low buy-in tournament can be a big deal. If you’re playing a 5.50 SnG you’re not likely to have a big roll. Some players will and just like to risk less of their bankroll in SnGs. But the difference between winning nothing and winning even the smallest prize can be a big deal to an entrant.

Once again, I wouldn’t do this with a huge percentage of your chips. But if you have done pretty well early and have a decent stack, stabbing at pots in late position with few players can definitely pay off. Big stacks are probably not interested in clashing with someone else with a decent amount of chips, and they’d rather pick on smaller stacks. The smaller stacks are waiting for a good hand to invest their chips in. So they’re not a huge danger when you’re bluffing in late position.

Under the gun bluffs can be effective too…as long as you don’t do it often. Betting out under the gun is likely to scare a lot of people off late in a tournament.
So…bluff, but do it sparingly

If you’re going to bluff in these games, pick your spots. Don’t expect that the fancy bluffs you see on TV are going to work in these smaller games. I’ve cashed 9-man SnGs several times by picking up one small pot early and watching everyone else around me bluff their chips away or risk them unnecessarily with marginal hands.

Playing tight, smart poker is better in these games than trying to be a super-aggressive bluffer. You’ll find players who can win by disregarding all of the advice in this column. But those people also expose themselves to big losing streaks, too.

1) How many players are you up against? I know, this seems more than obvious, but there’s simple math at work that too many people ignore – the more players in the hand, the more likely it becomes that someone will have something worth calling with.

2) How many reasons would an opponent have to call your bluff? There’s a big difference between bluffing into a flop of Q72 rainbow [all different suits] and a flop of QsJs7h. The more potential reasons the board gives an opponent to call you [in this case, likely flush draws, straight draws, or middle/low pair with a redraw hands] the less likely your bluff will succeed.

3) Where do your opponents fall on a general passive to aggressive scale? When you’re last to act and everyone checks to you, knowing your opponents is crucial in determining whether or not to pull the trigger. Aggressive players tend to bet their hands more often than not [although if they feel you've been picking off too many pots they will start to look for a checkraise opportunity], but passive players feel much better about calling than betting. In short, I’d feel more comfortable bluffing against aggressive players simply because I can generally put more faith in the fact that their check is a sign of weakness.

4) How do opponents perceive you? Playing tight for the first 10 rounds or so makes it a lot easier to pull off a bluff here and there, with increasing frequency as the game continues. The initial impression players get of you is the one that generally sticks throughout the entire session [your more observant opponents will note when you switch gears] – so if you’ve set a tight impression, your bluffs have a greater chance of succeeding.

5) How are opponents likely to perceive your bet? This issue is largely a function of position and bet size. Bets from late position following checks from everyone in front are generally more likely to be viewed as bluffs [a fact that you can use to great advantage when you actually do flop a hand in late position], while bets from early position generally get more respect. The size of the bet matters as well; some players view underbetting the pot as a telltale sign of a steal, while others view massive overbets as such. Pay attention to the bet sizes [relative to the pot] that other players seem willing to call when they’re playing “cop” and adjust your bluffs accordingly.

None of the articles in this vein dare to suggest that bluffing is a strategy that can be boiled down to a simple, concrete set of rules ala pot odds. Bluffing is certainly more of an art than a science, but that doesn’t mean you have to go into it blind. Some situations lend themselves to more profitable bluffs than others, and even a rough idea [which is all this article provides] of what those situations are can make a big difference in your bankroll at the end of the month.