Raise or Shove? Factors That Impact Raise Sizing in Tournaments

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As you move into the middle stages of no limit tournaments online, you’ll frequently find yourself with stacks that are a little awkwardly sized for standard raise and re-raise amounts, but are a also a little too large to simply auto-shove. In this article, we’re going to outline some of the factors that you should consider when deciding whether to make a standard-sized raise or move all in.

Here’s a sample hand that will help illustrate some things you should be thinking about in those spots. This hand is taken from the $20 Rebuy 6-max tournament on Full Tilt Poker. The rebuy period is closed.

You have Jacks. You don’t have any particular history with the players at this table, but the SB has proven to be very stubborn in confrontations with other players.

You certainly aren’t forced to raise here – you can call off and hope to set or catch a safe flop. However, if you choose to raise, which is better – a standard raise or a shove? Let’s consider a couple of questions:

What’s the potential post-flop situation?
If you shove, post-flop is a non issue, so it’s important to consider whether seeing a flop will work in your favor or not. In this spot, let’s say you 3-bet to about 1300 or so. You’ll certainly take the pot fairly often, but your first opponent will be getting nearly 3-1 on the call, and if they call, your second opponent may decide to come along as well. Playing JJ in a built pot, potentially out of position, potentially multi-way with about a pot or less left in your stack can be tricky, as an overcard is going to flop about half the time. When seeing a flop might get you in an awkward spot, consider an all in instead of a standard raise.

Which raise best disguises your hand?
Any raise is designed to get your opponent to hopefully call when you’re stronger and fold when you’re weaker. In this spot you’re not looking to make your hand look stronger than it is, because you’re not going to get a hand stronger than JJ to fold – all you’ll accomplish is making more hands that JJ beats fold. Your goal is to make your hand look as weak as possible. In lower buy in tournaments, all in bets are generally perceived as weaker than standard sized raises – I think your typical player at these levels would be able to talk themselves into putting you on AK or 99 here, which is exactly the sort of thinking you’re hoping for. In higher buy in tournaments you won’t get the same monkey calls, but the question still remains the same – what bet size allows you to misrepresent your hand to your greatest advantage? Whatever bet size allows you to get your opponent to misjudge your range to the greatest degree, that’s the one you should choose. In this case, I think an all in allows your opponent to read you as weaker than you are. If you were a little deeper, I think a standard re-raise would work better, as it might look like a squeeze that you can be four bet off of, but a standard raise with these stacks looks pretty strong and you’re unlikely to get medium pairs – the hands you’re crushing – to make a big mistake.

What bet best plays off your opponents tendencies?
Some opponents thrive on post-flop play. Other opponents dread the thought of calling a big preflop raise with a hand like AQ or 99 and then having to play unfavorable flops. Some opponents have no problem folding to a three bet, while others simply cannot let go of a hand once they have some money in the pot. Those tendencies are often critical tiebreakers when you’re considering what kind of raise to make. You basic goal is to determine how you can force your opponent to make the largest possible mistake, given what you know about your opponent. In our example, the stubborn opponent in the SB gives us some motivation to simply shove, as their initial call might serve to pull them into the pot.

The moral of the story: all raises are not created equal. In this hand, it seems like making an all in move is superior to a standard raise. It avoids some preflop awkwardness, makes your hand look far weaker than it actually is and may possibly exploit a core weakness in your opponent. Of course, each hand is a unique situation, but this analysis should give you a framework for determining the optimal point on the raise slider between minimum and maximum the next time you’re in a similar spot.

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