Predictions For Poker in 2010

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Much like the game itself, the poker industry is an exciting, dynamic and highly volatile beast. Part of that is driven by the relative youth of the industry; another part is driven due to poker’s position at a unique intersection of powerful cultural, legislative and technological forces.

Whatever you chalk it up to, the industry’s rapid evolution isn’t likely to run short of fuel any time soon. Below we’ve collected our best guesses on what events (or lack thereof) are most likely to shape the poker industry in 2010. In between our big picks we’ve stuffed some snippet predictions regarding the day-to-day stories you’re most likely to see as the calendar passes though the next twelve months.

PREDICTION ONE: ANOTHER MAJOR SCANDAL WILL BREAK
Much as it pains to admit, the online poker world is in many ways tailor-made for the scammer. The large amounts of money and the ability to operate in relative anonymity provide an all-too fertile breeding ground for easy-money schemes hatched generally by the lazy and stupid. Those schemes aren’t generally a problem – it’s when the intelligent and resourceful types decide to chase an easy buck that the real trouble begins.

When you think online poker scandal, the first word that comes to a lot of people’s minds is “superuser.” The next major online poker scandal will likely push that word back to the tips of player’s tongues, but with a twist: the superusers of 2010 won’t be room insiders with an ability to see opponent’s holecards. Instead, they’ll be products of a massive collusion ring where members share mountains of data, coach each other in real time (or hand off accounts entirely) and (less frequently) share the contents of their own holecards. The offenders will likely be tournament players, as a cash collusion ring would be less profitable and easier to detect, and will almost certainly include some names easily recognizable to the online poker crowd.

Why? Because it’s relatively easy to do with current technology, the rooms have little defense against it and people are greedy. The online MTT community is littered with high-profile examples of big winners cheating the system to get an edge – in our view, that’s online (sadly) the tip of the iceberg.

Also: PokerStars will break the world record for an online tournament a few more times – we say 3. Microgaming will drop out of the top 10 rooms (in terms of real-money traffic). Shaun Deeb will play an online MTT in 2010.

PREDICTION TWO: 2010 WILL BE THE YEAR OF CONTENT
Over the last few years, online poker rooms have battled to gain new players and retain old ones in a pretty traditional arena: player promotions. PokerStars’ Supernova Elite status, Full Tilt’s Iron Man and UB’s Raise Program are just a few examples of how rooms spent much of their time, energy and resources developing promotional systems aimed at keeping a player’s action exclusively at their tables.

Rooms are now waking up to a couple of facts: one, that player reward wars can quickly devolve into a race to the bottom that decimates bottom lines industry-wide; two, complex, involved player reward programs are more likely to snare existing, savvy players than attract a new class of recreational players that rooms need to support their current player bases. The result is that the big rooms are all starting to turn their promotional efforts away from player rewards and towards content creation.

PokerStars is already a leader in this category, with their extensive live tournament coverage via blogs and PokerStars.tv; they’re also on a cutting-edge of sorts with their online tournament recap shows that apply the WPT coverage model to major online tournaments. Both PokerStars and FTP rolled out game-show-esque offerings on mainstream TV in 2009 (Million Dollar Challenge and Face the Ace, respectively), and UB was quick to follow with a news magazine-style effort (Poker2Nite). Expect to see these efforts expand exponentially in 2010 as content becomes the new promotional battleground for the major rooms. Look for new TV shows (more cable than network) and tons of web-based programming as rooms use this medium as a testing ground for larger projects. Especially likely: live (on delay) coverage of major online MTTs.

Why? VIP Programs cost a lot and don’t have mainstream appeal. Major rooms have a ton of talent on payroll and will start to ask more from their rosters than slapping a patch on for the WSOP.

Also: Bodog will double their traffic by the end of 2010. Full Tilt will roll out an effort similar to the Brunson Ten / PokerStars Online Pro. Significant consolidation will occur in the online poker training industry.

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