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Playing against a light three bettor: a sample scenario

As no limit cash games get more and more aggressive, many players are finding that they’re forced to develop ultra-aggressive counter-strategies that would have been pretty controversial even a few months ago. The old adage, popularized by (I believe) T.J. Cloutier,that a fourth raise preflop is a guarantee of pocket aces now seems oddly antiquated in the face of modern online cash games, where three betting preflop has become a fairly routine occurrence and light four betting is currently emerging as a popular response.

In this article we’re going to lay out a fairly typical preflop scenario involving an opponent who has three bet you out of the blinds. The point of this article isn’t to prescribe a perfect course of action in similar scenarios. Rather, it’s simply to discuss some alternatives and to review some of the basic factors you should be considering when you’re facing a three bet preflop.

This scenario assumes fairly typical conditions in an online 1-2 No Limit 6 max game. We’ll also stipulate that you’ve been very aggressive preflop, running at about 29 VPIP and 20 PFR. These numbers may seem a little high to some, but we’re going to draw a fairly extreme scenario to help sharply define some of the concepts involved. We’ll further assume that two of your opponents have been playing very tightly against you, one has been calling loose preflop and then playing tight on flops, and two have been matching your aggression and often confronting you preflop and on the flop.

You’re on the CO with 10 9h and $400 behind. Your primary opponent is in the SB with $200 behind. UTG, one of your loose-passive opponents, limps. UTG+1 folds. You raise to $7, which has been your standard raise. The button folds, and the SB, who is one of your aggressive opponents, raises you to $26. The BB folds and UTG folds. The action is now to you.

This is the fourth time the SB has three bet this session. They’ve done it from the blinds twice before and once from the button. You folded twice and called once, winning the hand you called after you flopped second pair and called / checked down; your opponent showed QJo that hand..

Let’s review your options. Folding seems a little weak. You have position, you’re getting 2-1 direct odds, and you’re getting another 10-1 implied on their stack. You also have a hand that can flop strong, and both of you will have enough chips behind that you’ll have some room to play on the flop – if you call, the pot will be $56 and even if your opponent leads out for $50, they’ll still have over $125 behind, meaning they won’t be pot-committed with small pairs, missed big cards, or even weaker draws. All of those arguments for not folding are, of course, decent arguments for calling.

If calling is better than folding, what about raising? I know four betting with a hand like 10 9 suited might seems insanely aggressive to some people, but before we dismiss it out of hand, let’s review some numbers.

The first number we want to nail down is how we’re doing in a worst-case scenario. If we give our opponent a fairly tight 3 betting range (relative to his activity) that includes 10 10+, AQo+ and AQs+, our 10 9s is roughly a 70/30 dog. So, if we four bet here and our opponent commits, we’re going to win $200 30% of the time and lose $200 70% of the time for a net loss of $80.

The next number we want to discuss is how often we’d have to take down the pot with a four bet to balance that loss. When we raise and win, we take down a $31 pot (let’s call it $30 to keep everything nice and round). So, when he folds, we win $30, and when he plays we lose $80. That means he needs to fold 2.7 – 1 for us to show a (slight) profit – roughly 72% of the time.

What we’re left with is a question regarding your opponent’s range. If we assume he only plays on with 10 10+, AQo+ and AQs+ and folds all other hands, we need to make our best guess about whether or not his calling hands represent more or less than 30% of his range. If we include pairs down to 44 in his range, along with aces down to A8 and a handful of stronger broadway hands, then we pretty easily achieve a range that is going to fold more than 70% of the time. I think that given your aggression and his history of successfully three betting you this session, the above range isn’t all that off the wall.

Some readers might argue that I’m being optimistic, and that you’re realistically up against a range that will fold 50% of the time, resulting in a loss of $25 on the play. Why would you make a play that shows a loss or, at best, only shows a slight profit? That’s a good question, and here’s the best answer I have: when you have an aggressive image at a table and opponents that have position on you are responding with more aggression, I think that the willingness to four bet opponent light preflop is an essential part of your arsenal. Not only does it help to keep those opponents in check, but if you end up taking a hand like this to showdown, but you’re also going to significantly increase the chance that you get to four bet your strong hands, and that someone will come along weak. Basically, if it works, it increases your control over the table and frustrates your opponents. If it doesn’t work, it buys you an insanely wild image (far wilder than you actually are) for a pretty cheap price, an image that is pretty easy to exploit at most lower-limit tables.

So, to review, deciding whether or not to four bet preflop is a function of your image, your opponent’s image, and the range you feel comfortable assigning them. With reliable estimates on those points, your decision about whether or not to make this aggro play becomes fairly simple – especially if you’re playing against Mr. Cloutier.

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