Player Profiling: Tips For More Effective Reads

Jace Thomas : November 30th, 2009

Reading players is one of the more mystical-sounding aspects of poker. A lot of players think of reads as a super-intuitive process that draws on a skill that you either have or you don’t. While that may be true on some level, there are a few basic things about individual poker players that, once you know them, can dramatically improve your chances of success against that player.

The basic premise of this advice is simple: a lot of poker players know they should pay attention to their opponents, but they don’t know what they’re looking for. Without a focused goal, they get distracted, tired, and eventually slip into autopilot. That’s why we suggest focusing on answering a few simple questions about your opponents. Some of the questions below you’ll be able to answer just by looking at people; others you’ll be able to guess at by listening to them talk or watching them play a few hands. Some will require you to see a few showdowns to really feel confident in your answer. Regardless, the point is the same – pay attention to your opponents from the minute you sit down at the table with an eye toward answering these questions and you’ll be able to make better decisions, plain and simple.

Can They Make Thin Value Bets?
Some people only bet the nuts or close to it on the river, and some will bet any time they think there’s a decent chance you can call with worse. Knowing the difference between the two allows you more accurately assess your opponent’s strength when you’re facing a river bet. It also allows you to know when you can profitably attempt a check raise on the river, and when you should choose to lead instead.

This is a fairly easy question to answer, but it usually requires that you see a showdown or that you have a neighbor who’s willing to let you sweat their hand now and again. If you’re not seeing showdowns, you can make a pretty informed guess based on frequency – if your opponent is betting the river with a high percentage, then they’re value betting thin. When you’re taking mental notes on this question, you’re also accumulating information that will help you answer the next question….

Do They Bet Their Hand?
What we mean by ‘bet their hand’ is this: do your opponents scale their bet-sizing relative to the strength of their hand? It’s a lot more common in live poker games than it is in online poker games, and if you can nail someone down as having this bet sizing tell, your ability to play profitably against them will increase dramatically.

Here’s a common example: Let’s say four people limp into a hand in a 2/5 game, including UTG, the button and the blinds. The flop comes KT4 rainbow. Everyone checks to the button, who bets $15. Two players call. The turn is a 6. Both players check to the button, who bets $20. One player calls. The river is a Q; it checks to the button, who bets $20 again.

What’s he have? Probably K8s or something along those lines. When people make these bets in position, they tend to be weak value bets. When they make them out of position they can mean the same thing, but also may be blocking bets with some sort of draw. Either way, when you see this sort of betting pattern that really deviates from the standard half pot to pot range, make a note and do everything you can to see the hand.

Can They Tilt?
Everyone can tilt, of course, but some players are far more prone to it than others, and during the window where they do tilt, they become a far worse player for it. While that window is open, you have a chance to get value out of a player that you normally wouldn’t, so understanding the answer to this question is a critical one.

Pay attention to how a person behaves after taking a loss – not immediately afterward, but for the next few hands. How are they handling their chips? Are they playing a lot of hands? Are they mumbling to themselves? You can generally get a pretty good idea of whether or not they’ve shrugged off the loss. If they have, then don’t change anything about how you play them.

If they haven’t, the next step is to note how it seems to be impacting their game. Do they seem impatient to get back into the action? Are they acting more rapidly than usual? These are all hints that they’re itching to win quick to erase the stink of the loss they just took, and are therefore prime to run a big bluff or make a big call – information that can improve your read on them immeasurably.

Can They Fold?
This is arguably the most important thing to know about an opponent, and acting without this knowledge is, generally speaking, one of the largest leaks in a typical live player’s game. The nature of live poker is that it attracts far more calling stations than online poker, bottom line. Running bluffs against calling stations (or not extracting thin value) can cost you tons of bets a session.

You can generally get a good idea of the answer to this question by observing frequency and attitude. If a person tends to fold very reluctantly, with a grimace, that person is more likely to be a station than the player who flicks their cards into the muck without a second thought. If the person utters phrases like “I know you’ve got me, but I have to pay you”, then they’re not going to fold when you want them to. Ever.

A player in Vegas told me once that if he wrote a poker book, it wold be one sentence on one page: ‘Never bluff a donkey’. He was right, and being able to separate those you can bluff from those you can’t will save you frustration and cash time and time again.

There are obviously tons of other observations you can make about players, but the above is a great starting point, especially if you’re feeling a bit overwhelmed with all of the information live poker has to offer. Focus your energy on answering those four questions and you’ll quickly find your time better spent and your bankroll bumping up.

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