Open end straight flush draw...

beagler27 · 07-03-2005, 12:28 PM

What are the odds of not making a hand that beats middle pair when you flop an open-end straight flush???

So, I'm playing in the Bet Hold'em weekly leaderboard tourney a little while ago. I pick up JcTc in mid position - one limper ahead of me, so I limp.

Flop gives me an open end straight flush draw 8c 9c rag. Short stack goes all in in front of me. I think about it, then decide to callim. Gotta' accumulate some chips some time and this looked like a nice spot to gamble. Anyhow, another guy after me puts me all in with his middle pair. Turns out the short stack was on a baby flush draw.

In short, 2 rags hit turn and river and I lasted for about 10 total minutes in the tourney and finished second to last - 6 or 7 places out of the money. LOL

Why don't I EVER have any luck??? LOL

Barton · 07-03-2005, 12:43 PM

Without looking it up, my memory is if you have 21 outs on the flop you are about a 70-30 favorite. Even with a couple clubs gone you must still be in the mid 60's

beagler27 · 07-03-2005, 12:45 PM

That's about what I ballparked it at.

Just wasn't my turn, I guess. That kind of draw and 2 overcards to the board and I still don't beat middle pair. LOL

Barton · 07-03-2005, 01:02 PM

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds...ldem/index.php

That's a nice little tool to see how bad you got screwed, and we were right you are about 65% (assuming "middle pair" had a small other card)

beagler27 · 07-03-2005, 02:09 PM

Cool tool.

Shows about 68% after flop and 50% after turn rag. Then there was 0% after river. LOL

AaronC · 07-03-2005, 08:22 PM

you should have re-raised with this hand. you're ahead of everything but a set, and you're not even bad against that. with the money added, you're getting plenty of odds to get your chips in here.

aaron