Made hands on the turn in no limit cash games - betting strategies to force your opponent to commit their stack on the river.
I was playing in a 2/5 no limit texas holdem game over at Caesar’s the other night, and a fairly interesting hand came up. Not interesting in the sense that it makes for a good story to your non-poker playing friends, but more in the sense that it illustrates a lot of the questions you have to answer when you’re trying to get the maximum pay off from a made hand on the turn.
I had been playing for about an hour or so and had taken down two pots, once by showing down a strong hand and once by betting and having my opponent muck. My cards stopped cooperating, and when I picked up 57s in middle position, it looked suspiciously like aces. Everyone before me folded, and I raised to 20. The player directly to my left called, the button called and the small blind called.
The flop was gold, solid gold: 3c 6h 9s, giving me a double gutshot draw. The SB checked and I led out for $60. The two players behind me folded and the SB called. At this point, he had about $800 or so behind and I had him covered.
The turn was even solid…er gold: a 4h, making me a pretty-hard-to-see variety of the nuts. To be perfectly honest, it was so hard to see that I didn’t even catch it at first; when I read the flop I thought I had just flopped one gutshot - that I needed an 8. When the four hit, I knew it was a good card, but I actually had to do a slight double-take before I realized how good of a card it was. While I was busy figuring out my hand, my opponent gave me a whole new situation to process by leading out for $125.
The pot at that point was right about $325; my opponent had underbet the pot [$125 into roughly $200] and put me in an interesting position - I was holding a strong, but well-disguised hand on a fairly safe board and now he was representing a strong hand as well. I wanted to get the rest of his stack into the middle. Let’s take a look at my options and hopefully by comparing and contrasting each, we’ll pick up a few ideas about how to handle similar situations in texas hold em games.
First we have to make a loose assessment of what kind of hand my opponent has. It’s possible he could have a set; the board would look safe enough on the flop to allow for a smooth call of my bet, but the turn is scary enough that he’d feel compelled to bet out to avoid giving me a free card. What’s even more likely is that he called my bet on the flop because he was fairly weak but had a decent chance to improve - a hand like 64 or 65, and the turn made him two pair or improved his draw.
I could call. This was my first thought. If I called the $125, we’d be playing for a $450 pot on the river, and my opponent would have about $600 left. If he makes any significant bet on the river, I have a good chance of getting him to commit to his stack. That’s the upside. The downside is, there’s a lot of cards that can hit the river that counterfeit / beat my hand or at least stop him from making that bet. If the board pairs, hearts hit, or a 5 or 7 hits, getting his stack in the middle loser is going to be a lot harder [that’s just about half the remaining deck, by the way].
I could raise an outlandish amount. I considered this option for a second as well. My hand was so well-disguised that it would be tough for him to put me where I was, and if he did have a medium two pair or set, he might put me on an overpair like 10 10 or JJ and decide to play. If he had just a pair and a draw, however, he’d probably fold, and he might even fold a weak two - while he can’t put me an a straight easily, putting me on a set isn’t all that tough. I like the big overbet on the flop and the river a whole lot more than I like it on the turn.
I could raise a small amount. When I say small amount, I’m thinking something between the $125 minimum raise and $225. I’m not really a fan of the minimum raise - I think it’s usually pretty transparent and often gives your opponent a pretty profitable situation - but I like a smallish raise in this spot. It’s going to be hard for any average player holding two pair to fold if I bet about $175 more, and it accomplishes the critical task of building the pot to a size that’s going to commit my opponent for his stack. In a beautiful, magical world, he puts in the third bet with a weaker hand, but most people I play with at the boat tend to call, and not raise or fold, when faced with difficult situations. If I make the small raise and he calls, we’d be playing for a $800 pot on the river and he’d have about $400 left in front of him. If he makes any bet on the river, it’s pretty likely that his whole stack is going in, but my turn raise is probably going to result in him checking.
Now if you’re like me, you’re thinking that $400 is still a pretty big amount for my opponent to get in on the river. It’s possible that a scare card could hit the river, one that makes him feel comfortable laying down his hand. It’s possible that a perfect blank like a Q could hit the river and he could still have second thoughts about bottom two being good when I fire another $400 - I’ve now shown strength on every street and am likely to have a hand that beats most two pairs. If he’s a glass full type of person, he’ll see that he still has half of his stack left and live to fight another day.
I could raise a medium amount. I’m talking about a pot-sized raise here - somewhere in the neighborhood of $250-$300 on top of his bet. Now we’re in an area where we have to find the point between a number small enough to seem call-able, but large enough to build the pot to a point where your opponent is going to be basically committed for their stack on the river [ideally without them realizing that on the turn]. If I raise to $375 total, my opponent has to call $225 more for a pot of $700. If he calls, we’re playing for a $950 pot on the river and my opponent has about $325 left. Notice the difference a small adjustment in my raise amount makes - I’m only talking about raising $75 more, but it presents my opponent with a wildly different situation. When I raise to $300, my opponent is looking at a 2-1 pot to stack ratio - he’ll have $400 on the river and the pot will be 800. When I raise to $375, my opponent is looking at almost a 3-1 pot to stack ratio - he’ll have about $325 and the pot will be about $950.
I ended up raising to $400 total, and my opponent folded. In retrospect, I probably gave my opponent too much credit when he bet out - I wanted him to have a set or two pair badly enough that I got optimistic. After walking the hand through, I still like the medium amount, but I probably would have been better off making the bet about $350.
Regardless of how the hand worked out, the interesting point, to me at least, is how the betting on the turn sets up the course of action your opponent will likely have to follow. There’s a basic truth that the greater the ratio between the pot and a player’s stack on the river, the more likely they are to call with a marginal hand. Working to manipulate that ratio on the turn is a critical part of texas holdem strategy, because it aids you in forcing players to make the best kind of mistakes - the kind where you get all their chips.
