Hit and Run: Podcast Edition! (Ep. 3 – The Value of Taking Risks)

Alex Weldon : April 15th, 2016


The second episode of the PartTimePoker Podcast is now available! Andrew and Alex take a look at the considerations involved in an extreme bankroll management hypothetical, and what it tells us about wealth inequality, and also delve into prop betting, the Global Poker League and one suspiciously small river lead-out. Meanwhile, elsewhere on the web, poker sites take a look back at Black Friday, and forward to the future of regulated online gambling.

PTP Podcast Episode 3: The Value of Taking Risks

Andrew’s economic background comes to the fore in our third episode, a big chunk of which is dedicated to the subject of risk aversion. The inspiration for this topic came from a hypothetical question posed on Twitter by Daniel Negreanu: if your net worth was $1 million, would you risk everything on a coin flip to win $10 million?


Risk aversion is something everyone understands intuitively – that losing a certain amount of money tends to hurt you more than you would benefit from gaining an equivalent amount – but the extent to which people experience depends a lot on who they are and what their life circumstances are. Negreanu’s question therefore has pretty deep socio-economic implications, probably beyond what he actually intended to probe in asking it.

On thematically-related notes, we look at the Dan Bilzerian / Bill Perkins cycling proposition bet, and why the incentives involved in that made it foolish for others to place bets of their own on the outcome, and at the first two weeks of the Global Poker League – itself a pretty big gamble on the part of Mediarex CEO Alex Dreyfus.

Welcome to the Jungle

Since we were going to be talking about the GPL anyway, I decided that would be a good source for a hand to analyze in this episode’s strategy segment. The hand in question was part of a heads-up match between Bertrand “ElkY” Grospellier and Daniel “Jungleman” Cates, and we present the hand from the latter’s point of view. Cates flops top set on the wet board and takes a line that should end in a river all-in; instead, ElkY, playing out of position, interrupts the natural flow of things by leading out with a tiny bet on the river. This confuses Cates and makes him worry about whether he’s being trapped, or leveled, or what. Under ordinary circumstances, Cates’s hand would be strong enough that getting all the chips in would be automatic, but ElkY is a tricky opponent, so there’s plenty to dissect here.

So, does Andrew end up playing the hand just like Jungleman, or does he end up doing something better, or worse? Tune in and find out.

Podcast Links

Here are links to the various stories discussed on the podcast, for your further reading enjoyment:

On Birds, Bushes and the Value of a Dollar
Dan Bilzerian Wins $1.2 Million Cycling Bet
Putting Money on Bill Perkins’s Prop Bets is a Terrible Idea
First Day of the GPL Was a Delightful Mess
Key Hand: Bertrand Grospellier vs. Dan Cates (SPOILER WARNING)

Quick Hitters

- April 15 is a date burned into the mind of most poker veterans, and this year it happens to land on a Friday once more. Several news outlets have marked the occasion by taking a look back on the fateful day which has come to be known as Black Friday.

- Despite Black Friday, online gambling is still a $37 billion global industry. These days, it’s largely driven by the European Union, according to a piece at Card Player.

- Determined not to repeat the catastrophe of Black Friday on the other side of the Atlantic, French regulator ARJEL implemented player fund protection measures, but is that sufficient? The ongoing fallout stemming from the failure of the site EuroPoker suggests that the answer is no.

- Perhaps because it’s so lucrative, online gambling continues to make headway, albeit slowly, in returning to the US. Michigan is the latest state to start making moves in the direction of regulation.

- The legality of gambling in Canada is likewise shifting. Even as Quebec’s provincial government seeks to force internet service providers to block online gaming sites, there’s a move at the federal level to legalize single-game sports betting.

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