Floating in no limit part 2 - The ’semi-float’
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While answering a post on the Parttimepoker forums about floating I described calling a bet that I wouldn’t normally call because it allowed me to use my position to steal later in the hand. My fellow posters didn’t consider it floating because I had a somewhat reasonable number of possible outs. I argued that it was floating because I would have folded this hand if I believed he was strong, thus drawing to a gut-shot was an unprofitable prospect if I was looking to get paid proper odds on this long shot. I ended up calling the play a “semi-float”, as bluffing with a draw would be a “semi bluff”.
The general rule is: don’t draw to a long-shot if you don’t feel you will get paid enough to warrant the call when you get there… But to me this rule has always seemed flawed. If you don’t feel you are likely to get paid off when you hit a disguised hand, then that must mean your opponent is likely to fold his hand on many occasions later in the hand when you don’t improve as well. Maybe you believe he is just continuation betting, and if you hit you won’t get paid because he has only ace high. Part one of this
article discussed spots where you might call on the flop with nothing at all because you believe you can steal the pot later in the hand, but why call with nothing when you can call with something unlikely.
A scenario:
My opponent raised 3x BB pre-flop in late position and I called on the button with TJs. Both blinds fold.
My opponent will always continuation bet against one opponent.
My opponent will almost always bet the turn if he believes he has the best hand.
My opponent will usually check the turn if he suspects he is beat.
My opponent knows where the fold button is.
Flop Ks 9c4h
My opponent leads for 5BB.
Holding a 3 flush and a gut shot there are a lot of good turns for me, but not many that make me a winner on the turn. Drawing to the gut shot here is an unprofitable play if you believe your opponent is unlikely to pay 11-1 when you hit, and will go to showdown when you miss. So to make calling here you must either believe your opponent will pay you handsomely when you hit, or will abandon his bluff on the turn and you and pick up the pot a substantial portion of the time without improving. (I will avoid
the complicated option of raising on the turn when you pickup additional outs and believe a bluff is best).
Compare this scenario (changing only the flop) to the common spot players float:
Kd8c4h flop instead of our flop.
When my opponent decides to bet the turn after our flop call in the first scenario there are a bunch of spots where we will have a strong hand on the turn by either picking up the nut straight, or a flush draw in addition to the gut shot. As an added bonus if the flush makes on the river, we have called a flop bet, making that flush very unlikely. If we were wrong, and our opponent actually had a strong holding we may end up getting our 11-1 or better after all. In the second scenario this can never happen.
When attempting a semi float remember that any obvious draw cannot be present (or you must know your opponent so well as to know he won’t put you on a draw). If you
try and “semi float” when there are more obvious draws present, your opponents are likely to be suspicious of you just calling on a draw. An opponent that believes
you to be on a draw will be more compelled to protect a much more marginal hand than if you could only have called with something that beats him or virtually nothing at all. In both of the above examples this is not a possibility due to the nature of the board.
The final thought on this section is focused your image again. By floating this horrible draw in the first part, when you hit and get paid your opponents aren’t likely to realize that you intended to steal the pot on a later street. Your image will change. People will continuation bet against you less, because you might call them with nothing. So even while the stars must align for a float to be profitable in the first place, once you think the right spot has come but you are wrong and your opponents have seen that you will call the flop with nothing at all, then you shouldn’t try again for quite some time. Most opponents are scared to fire the second bet on the turn because they believe you have to have something to call the flop, and since they did it on an uncoordinated board, then you must have a pair, likely with the intention of going to showdown with it. When
they see that this is not the case, most reasonable opponents will play much less predictably by either betting the flop less, or betting the turn more.
