Finesse: Flop Play in Limit Hold ‘Em

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This article will cover one scenario of when to cap, and when to call the third bet on the turn in limit. The scenario:

You hold AcKh
Flop is AsKc2s

Your opponent often will be very aggressive on a flush draw on the flop. You know him to cap bets. He bets the flop, you raise, any other players in the hand fold, and then he re-raises.

Do you cap here? What if you have AQ? My suggestion may seem like the exact opposite of what you might expect. I suggest a cap with AQ and a call with AK. Why would I suggest a weaker play with AQ when you are more likely to have the best hand and not with AK when you believe your opponent is probably on a flush draw? Shouldn’t you always make them pay for the draw?

While my theory of poker tells me you should always make someone pay the most for their draw I actually believe most opponents will pay you better if you show weakness. If you follow up with a cap, they feel less obligated to follow through on the turn. Not a lot of opponents will three bet then checks the turn. But they are very likely to check if you made the last bet on the cheap street. The spade draw would like nothing more than to win this on a missed turn with one more bet. So when the spades miss the turn your AK has a chance to make the spade draw pay an extra bet with only 20% to win.

So why cap on AQ? It really depends on how strong your opponent is likely to bet a non-spade draw hand if you play AQ weaker than the AK here. In general the 3 bet is a scary play if you only have top pair. You should treat your hand like AK if you are confident he is on less than your hand, but your ability to be confident of that goes down with the strength of your hand. AQ would like the information of your opponent having first action without being last bettor on the flop to know what action to take. AQ can bet the turn, but not raise, and taking control of the hand is more important when your hand is marginal. (yes AQ is marginal here).

More marginal hands like AT want this ability even more. Discretion may even push AT to check the turn and hope the spade draw bluffs the river, and only to pay one big bet vs. a bigger ace. Against an opponent less likely to steal on the river, a bet on the turn followed by a safe river check may play better, these decisions come down to finesse, most of poker comes down to these points. Take the time to figure out which play is the most profitable each night even after the hand is over, it might just make you a better player.

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