Figuring Out Your Implied Odds in No Limit Holdem
A lot of new players either don’t employ implied odds when making decisions at No Limit hold’em tables or they use a misunderstanding of implied odds to make loose calls that cost them money in the long run. This article will provide you with a bare-bones understanding of how to figure implied odds - integrating them correctly into your decision-making is a skill that is often more of an art than a science.
First of all, let me suggest a good rule of thumb for implied odds: figure them once and then readjust your initial assessment downward [make it more conservative]. The reasoning behind this tactic is that a lot of players find themselves calculating implied odds when they’re in situations where they might be looking for a reason to call, and therefore skewing the numbers to provide that reason. Check this natural tendency by always handicapping your calculations by a number or two; if you get 10-1 on your first run through, make your working number 8 or 9 to 1.
That said, let’s get to defining implied odds. In basic terms, determining whether or not you’re getting correct implied odds is a function of:
a) Direct pot odds [the ratio of the pot before you call to the amount you have to call]
b) The gap between direct odds and proper odds [the odds you need to call; for example, you’re about 7.5-1 to flop a set with a pocket pair]
c) How much money is available for you to win [the size of your opponents stacks]
d) The probability of getting paid off if you make your hand
Here’s a quick example to illustrate how those factors work together. Let’s say you’re playing online poker and holding a flush draw and are heads up with your opponent. Each of you have $100 remaining. Let’s say the pot size on the flop is $8 and your opponent bets $5.
a) Direct pot odds: You are getting about 2.5-1 direct.
b) Odds Gap: You need about 4-1 direct, so you’re missing about 1.5 which in this case is $7.50
c) Potential win: Your opponent has money remaining greater than b)
That leaves us with one issue - d), where we have to figure whether or not your opponent is likely to pay you more than $7.50 on remaining streets if you hit on the turn. There’s no formula for figuring that out, but the looser the opponent and the more disguised your hand is, the more likely you are to get paid.
Obviously there’s often a lot more to it, but that’s the bare bones of figuring implied odds in Texas Holdem Poker. When you get comfortable with the basics, you’ll have to deal with issues like redraws and true outs, but just considering the four factors above should be enough to point you in the right direction.
