Dissecting a calling station
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Why do calling stations, players that call way too much with second best hands, lose money in the long run? Part of the reason is their reluctance to protect their hands, but the biggest reason, the ‘smoking gun’ so to speak is their predictability.
The calling station is his own worst enemy. Rarely betting and even more rarely raising, bluffing is an element of every poker game except for the calling station. They become one dimensional – the call. When their opponents pick up on this tendency, the opponent will simply stop betting marginal hands and will value bet their made hands. Once you know the calling station is hooked to the pot, there’s rarely a reason to bet your draw unless you want to lay your own price and build a pot. Why not, they’ll pay off your value bet!
You may not believe you’re a calling station but chances are there’s a bit of calling predictability in your game. Consider how often you feel compelled or priced in on the river WHEN you think you’re beat but can’t fold. If more often than not you’re seeing a better hand than a bluff, you probably have calling station tendencies. This is a very difficult topic to tackle because the math can get complicated and confusing.
Consider these reasonable examples with an explanation of how the calling station part of you loses money in these spots.
Situation 1 – No limit cash game
You flop top two pair heads up, QJ with no other backdoor draws. The texture of the flop is QJ2 with the two big cards clubs. You can’t be 100% sure but you think your opponent has only a club draw. For the sake of simplicity we’ll look at the hand from the turn on.
The pot on the turn is $300 and a blank hits. Putting him on the flush draw and knowing he has nine outs once, you deduce that he’ll hit a club about 20% of the time. Basic gambler’s math says that’s 4 to 1. You bet $200, laying him $200 to win $500, or 2.5 to 1. You feel like you’ve successfully bet your hand and laid him an incorrect price to call on all streets. Now the river hits and it’s a club.
Pot size is $700. You check and he bets $200. Can you really fold $200 to win $900? You’re getting a great price on your call 4.5 to 1. And if he had the flush draw he’s taking a loss (he called $200 on the turn with the expectation of winning the turn pot of $500 plus the $200 river bet when he makes his hand; so he called $200 with the hope of winning $700, or 3.5 to 1). He wants 3.5 to 1, he needed 4 to 1. You’re getting the best of him by .5! How could you lose?
When you figured your odds you’re assuming your hand is up against the flush draw. However, if you’re wrong and he flopped a set, every penny you put in on the flop and turn is at an 85% loss or worse. Of course when you make your boat in this spot you’ll probably get paid but not enough to make up for the earlier losses. Your accuracy in putting him on the flush draw will determine whether or not this situation is profitable for you. You have to make up for the times you pay off on every street. That difference may come from him bluffing on the end, representing the flush when he missed something else.
What’s most alarming here is that you’ve represented a hand you wanted to protect. Your opponent has to believe the odds of you calling his river bet are high considering your aggression and the extreme value he’s laying you. Knowing that he knows you’re likely to call should be a red flag.
Example 2 – Pot limit Omaha
We all have the tendency to play some hands passively, especially when the nuts can change quickly or we have the second nuts in a deep stack game.
In an aggressive pot limit Omaha game, you flop a king high flush and top two pair. This isn’t a big hand but you think it could be best. Your lone opponent bets half pot and you call. Turn doesn’t change your hand or the nuts and he bets half pot again, you call. On the river nothing changes and he bets one quarter pot. You have the second nut hand and no more cards to try to catch up if you’re behind. You’ve invested a decent amount of money up to this point and his bet is very small. You have to call right? Well, in this spot, yeah probably. You committed to showing him your hand barring something crazy happening. However, by playing the flop passively instead of raising or folding, you went in to calling station mode. Even though it may be reasonable to call with second nut flush and top two, you’re in bad shape against the nut flush. Even with top set and all your boat cards live, you’re only going to beat the nut flush 36% of the time. And when you miss you’ll pay off!
Conclusion
If you call the river bet when you’re beat, you’re leaving your profit in the hands of the math on the turn and decreasing your profit no matter what. You’re putting money in when you have NO chance of improving to the best hand. Now, there’s expectation that he could be bluffing or over valuing his hand. However, when you call when you’re beat you lose. The only consolation in this case is the answer to this question: when you were ahead on the turn did you lay him the wrong price AND not pay off on the river in a way that made it right for him to call the turn bet? If the answer is yes, well your overall play was profitable but most certainly not as profitable as it could have been.
