Bubble Play in Top Two Pay Satellites – A Comprehensive Guide (Part Two)

Very Tight (0-10%)
This range is basically what you play when you’re in a very solid first or when one other opponent is basically crippled and already out of the hand. Even when you have a lot of chips, there are generally very few reasons for you to get involved in hands with a stack that can do even marginal damage to you. Past that, players are generally a little tighter when shoving on a large stack. As the stacks shoving on you get smaller and the players appear looser, you can move out of this range, but the basic idea is still critical: with a lot of chips on the bubble of a satellite and / or a player facing elimination in the foreseeable future, you are generally not being paid to gamble.

You’ll also see good arguments being made for playing this range when you have a pretty short stack, UTG and the SB are in a pretty close 1/2 and UTG shoves. The logic is that UTG simply isn’t going to shove much but premium hands with the threat of the SB waking up with a monster lurking behind. Even though you may be short, the shallow nature of most satellites dictates that a single double-up is generally enough to get you back to a healthy position. Since you’ll likely be able to shove the SB next hand, passing up a call of a button shove is often the right move, even when you have a hand that feels attractive with your small stack (QJ, weak aces, etc).

Finally, you’ll want to be playing pretty snug when you have a reasonable stack, a slight lead on / tie with the button (for second), the button folds and the big stack in the SB shoves. Even if you suspect the SB is pushing fairly wide, you’re not being paid to gamble. The logic is this – you have the best dynamic possible to accumulate chips, so there’s no need for you to call off to the SB since chipping up on the button without going to showdown will be a relatively easy task. You’ll always have the option to shove on your similarly stacked opponent when they’re in the BB (and if you don’t, that means the big stack is pressuring them, which is almost as good as you pressuring them). You’ll also have a pretty good spot for button shoving – the SB is unlikely to call you light in the hopes that the big stack in the BB will do the job, and with a reasonable stack (say 6BB) you’ll usually force the BB to fold many hands, as calling would generally cost them their chip lead and put them in the position of fighting for second.

Some samples from SNGW to illustrate the above:

vs UTG
Call 0% with 10BBs facing 10BB shove when SB has 2BBs
Call 3% with 14BBs vs 12BB UTG when SB has 2BBs
Call 7% with 5BBs vs UTG who is only shoving top 10%
Call 9% with 14BBs vs UTG with 6BBs shoving 25% and SB with 4BBs
Call 5-10% when button shoves for 10BBs and you’re in 2nd with 14BBs, even if button is pretty loose
Call 10% when you have 12BBs and button / SB are fairly even and button shoves 25%

vs SB
Call 9% with 25BBs when SB has 8BBs, UTG has 12BBs and SB is pushing all aces, pairs and strong broadway (25%)
Call 5% with 5.5 BBs when SB has 13BBs, button has 6BB and SB is pushing wide (50%)

Hopefully the above has given you some insight into an ICM-driven approach to bubble play in top-two payout tournaments. While no strategy is perfect, understanding the concepts that drive ICM play can’t do anything but improve your game. Satellite play isn’t always the most intuitive form of poker, so gaining a deeper appreciation of the fundamental math underlying the game can give you an edge that even your opponents with a good deal of general poker experience might not enjoy.

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