Bubble Play in Top Two Pay Satellites – A Comprehensive Guide (Part Two)

Brian Ralentide
(Page 2 of 3)

Aggressive (20-40%)

vs BUTTON
This is a range you’ll find yourself playing when you have a solid lead and expect that the button is shoving a fairly wide, but not ATC, range. You’ll also be playing this range against a slightly-tighter-than average button when you and the button are in a close battle for 2nd.

Pay attention to how the button plays as soon as the tournament is in push-fold territory. It’s generally correct for a third place button to be shoving very wide when the BB is in 2nd, so a button folding a few times in that dynamic is likely not playing optimal satty strategy. That doesn’t mean they’re not a good player, but it does mean that they’re generally not going to be shoving (and calling) as widely. That means that you can generally be calling their shoves more tightly but shoving on them with a wider range.

Some samples from SNGWiz

When you’re in 2nd / 3rd:
Call 38% when you and opp both have about 4.5 BBs and they’re shoving 25%
Call 38% with 8BBs facing 4BB shove from looser UTG
Call 25-40% when button shoves 5.5BBs and you have 12 BBs, depending on button looseness
Call 25% vs 5BB shove when you have same, little tighter if you’re 8BBs
Call 25% vs 5BB shove when you have 10BBs
Call 20% when opp has 6BB and you have 8BBs with SB as big CL

When you’re in lead / have deeper stack
Call 25% when you have 16BBs and both opps are 7BB ish
Call 35% when you have 12BBs facing 4BB shoves with top 35%; tighten to 20%-30 if you have 10BBs
Call 30-45% against 3.5BB button shove when you have 10-14BB stack (depending on their looseness)
Call 20-40% facing 10BB button shove when you have 14BBs and button is very loose (50-100%)

vs SB
Even tight SBs are still likely to be shoving at least 25%-30% of hands (all aces, pairs, broadway and some weaker Ks) as their stack size and standing diminishes (think 5BBs and under), and when you’re against that sort of SB this is the range you should be defending with in most dynamics.

Examples from SNGW:
Call 33% when you have 12BB and SB shoves 4BBs and is opening about half
25% with 3.5 BBs vs big stack shoving 30% unless you think very broad; 40% if they shove 50%
Call 25% with 5BBs vs 6.5BB SB shoving 50%
Call 30% with 4BBs when 7BB

Tight (10%-20%)

vs UTG
This range is generally played against buttons who have medium stacks, especially when you yourself have a slightly stronger stack. The logic is that a slightly deeper button feels less desperate and won’t be shoving such a wide range. That, combined with the fact that deeper stacks mean more of a risk to your equity in the tournament, generally motivates you to play pretty tightly against buttons with 5-6BB stacks.

You should also be playing this range in the following dynamic: you’re a short stack and the button and SB are fairly equal. Here, we don’t expect the button to be shoving much because he’s loathe to get into a costly confrontation with the SB when your elimination seems fairly assured. As the distance between the buttons stack and the SB stack increases (with the button having the smaller stack), your range for calling with a short stack can also increase. SNGW examples:

When you have chips:
Call 17% when UTG shoves 6BBs and you have 12BB; tighter as he gets deeper (about -2% for each BB)
Call 18% when you have 10BBs and UTG shoves 6BBs
Call 20% when you have 7BBs and UTG shoves for 5BBs

When you’re short:
Call 10% when you have 2.5BBs – 4BBs and both opps are 12BB+
Call 18% with 4BBs vs looser UTG who has you covered

Vs SB
You’re generally going to be playing this range in a couple of very specific dynamics – when you’re short against a big stack in the SB who you think is playing fairly tight, and when you have a slight lead over a looser SB who is tied for 2nd with the button.

Call 20% with 9BBs facing 6BB shove when button has 6BBs as well
Call 18% with 3BB remaining facing shove from big stack unless you think they’re pushing very wide (45%+)

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