Breaking Down the WSOP Final Table
Saout is arguably in the worst shape of all of the shorter stacks. While Shulman, directly to his left, is fairly tight, he’s no pushover and will be willing to fire back when the opportunity arises. Even if Sauot gets through Shulman, he’ll have to contend with Darvin Moon in the BB when Sauot has the button and Moon plus an aggressive Akenhead willing to play back in the SB and BB when Sauot is in the CO.
Cada seems to have the best of it, depending on how Sauot ends up playing behind him. He can pose a bigger threat to Shulman and Moon, and his extensive online experience should be invaluable if his stack moves closer into push-fold territory. His comfort with playing such stack should also make him more willing to take some gambles to try and chip up, as dropping a chunk of his stack wouldn’t plunge him into (necessarily) awkward territory.
SEAT CHANGE, PLEASE!
Without a doubt, the worst seat at the table has to be the one occupied by Jeff Shulman. With Darvin Moon directly to his left, Shulman will have a tough time being active unless Moon loses a few big hands early. Even if he gets past Moon, he’s got to deal with two players likely to be very aggressive – Akenhead and Ivey – meaning that Shuman’s opportunities in late position will be few and far between, and even when he does get a hand he’s often going to have to contend with Moon and a positional disadvantage. As for his opponents on the right, Sauot may just end up shipping from the SB rather than play and Cada should be applying pretty regular pressure from the button that, given stack sizes, will be tough for Shulman to counter from the BB.
The best seat? That would be Eric Buchman. Buchman has two of the most inexperienced players with two of the most vulnerable stacks – Schaffel and Begleiter – directly to his right. He does have a small problem with an aggressive Cada to his left, but if Cada is getting his chips from other places he’s unlikely to tangle with Buchman too often. Buchman is also about as safe as he can be from the chip black hole that is Darvin Moon, meaning he’ll be free (largely) from the pressure of the big stack that will certainly be in the front and center of other player’s minds.
THE FINAL FIVE
We’ll stop short of predicting who will win, as even predicting who will be first out the door is a tough business in holdem tournaments. That said, the way the tournament and table are set up certainly favor some players over others. As a result, we think the final five will look something like this:
Darvin Moon – With his stack, it would be a blowup of epic proportions if he didn’t outlast 4 players. To put his lead in perspective: Moon could double up the smallest four stacks and still have a stack hovering right about average. Further helping his chances is the facts that Moon should be able to add a few more turrets to his chip towers in the early going as everyone just stays out of his way and looks for easier spots.
Eric Buchman – He’s got lots of chips, he’s got lots of experience and he’s got arguably the best seat at the table. It would take some bad luck, a meltdown or a sick run of cards for Begleiter to derail Buchman from reaching the final five.
Jeff Shulman – He’s been to the final table before, in 2000, and that’s worth something. He’s also got a Harrington-esque TAG style that could play pretty well given his stack and seat. Unless Shulman runs uber-terribly, he should be able to exploit the expected aggressiveness of Cada and Saout (and possibly even Buchman) to build a stack that can survive down to five.
Phil Ivey – While he’s on a shorter stack, he’s patient, focused, and has far and away the best poker mind at the table. He should also be the least affected by the pressure, a massive advantage that ought to come into play both immediately and frequently. With Ivey’s ability to take down pots without showdowns and stop opponents from taking shots at him – unless he wants them to – Ivey seems like a solid bet to sneak into the top five.
Joe Cada – Cada seems likely to go big or go bust, and with his position and the amount of money on the line, he should be able to run up a solid stack with little opposition. He’s also the one player at the table with a very good opportunity to exploit Buchman, so if Cada plays as expected he should be able to score chips from several spots. Unless he doesn’t know when to let go of the throttle, Cada will be carried by his selective aggression into the final five.
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