Breaking Down the WSOP Final Table
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2009 promises to offer one of the more interesting final tables in World Series of Poker history. Basically every poker stereotype imaginable is present, including the amateur with the towering stack of chips he may or may not know how to use (Darvin Moon), the low-profile live grinder (Eric Buchman), the young internet phenom (Joe Cada) and, of course, the megawatt poker superstar (Jeff Shulman).
Just kidding. We refer, obviously, to Phil Ivey, who capped off this ‘Year of the Pro’ at the WSOP with an amazing run to the final table. The collision of all of these players, with their wildly varying levels of experience, comfort, priorities and chips, should make for some extremely interesting poker. Below we break down the final table and how play is likely to unfold as the November Nine returns from their respite and take their seats at the biggest Final Table in the pokerverse.
JUST THE FACTS
There’s no redraw for seats at the final table, so the players will come back to the same seats they held while the table was ten handed. When play resumes, Darvin Moon will be in the button, resulting in a final table that will look like this, positionally:
When play resumes, they’ll start in Level 33 ($120,000-$240,000 with $30k antes) with approximately 24 minutes left. That means every pot will be worth 630k – not a huge chunk of the total chips in play, but a fairly significant amount to most of the players due to how Moon skews stacks with his massive chip edge.
To wit: The average stack is about 22 million. If you remove Moon, the average stack of the remaining players drops dramatically to 17 million.
After 24 minutes pass, they’ll head into Level 34 ($150,000-$300,000 with $40k antes). Each level lasts two hours. To translate that into hands, the average hands dealt at a live game is probably about 30 hands an hour. With the pomp, circumstance and extended thought likely to go into play at this table, you can expect that hands per hour will probably dip into the high teens, meaning that players can expect to see between 30-40 hands, or about four orbits, per level.
Assuming no one is eliminated in the final minutes of Level 33, the average stack in Level 34 will be a bit over 70 BBs.
The blinds increase fairly evenly over the next few levels. You can view a complete structure sheet at WSOP.com here for a total picture.
IN THE BEGINNING…
While lots of experiences can prepare you for playing at the Final Table of the World Series of Poker, most people seem to agree that there’s no way to completely prepare for the stress and pressure that comes along with the real thing. Given that, expect most players to take the first orbit or so easy as they settle in to the table and work out the jitters caused by the weeks of anticipation preceding play.
Since this is the default path you’d expect a typical player to take, there will obviously be players looking to exploit it. Arguably in the best position to do so: Darvin Moon, whose mountain of chips will allow him to risk missteps that no one else at the table, save possibly Buchman, can really afford or stomach.
Next in line: Phil Ivey, who has to be in his opponent’s heads – not only because he’s Phil Ivey, but because all of the WSOP coverage up to this point has shown him either absolutely owning an opponent, having the nuts or both. While he’s never been on this stage, it’s hard to believe that Ivey can be rattled sitting at any poker table under any circumstances and he’ll likely be looking to build his stack by taking advantage of his ability to act decisively while others fade under the immediate pressure.
Finally, look for Buchman to take advantage of his excellent position and chip excess to turn on the gas if Moon and Ivey pass in front of him – and possibly even if they don’t.
SHORT STACKS: ATTACK OR RELAX?
The WSOP ME is a pretty deep tournament, so ’short stacks’ is a bit of a misnomer at this table. Consider: If Akenhead, the shortest stack at 6.8 million, does nothing but fold for two and a half hours, he’ll still have close to a 10BB stack as play moves into Level 35.
That said, no one gets to this point and then settles for blinding off. How should / will the five shorter stacks (Ivey, Akenhead, Schaffel, Cada and Saout) proceed? We’ve already described how Ivey will probably get out of the gate: with aggression until he meets resistance or gets his stack closer to a point where he can really apply pressure to the 30 million + stacks. Akenhead has plenty of live final table experience, so he’s no stranger to managing the short stack, but his table position – sandwiched inbetween Moon and Ivey – might make it very difficult for him to be active without a hand. Schaffel his a similar problem with Ivey acting before him and Buchman to his left, as Buchman will probably be very interested in getting involved in pots with Schaffell (and Begleiter) in position.
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