Betting on the World Series of Poker Final Table
One of the most entertaining things about the World Series of Poker – especially with the current format of delaying the final table of the Main Event for several months – is the discussion it breeds regarding the chances of each individual to take home arguably the most coveted prize in poker: the WSOP Main Event bracelet.
Poker fans being what they are, that discussion inevitably involves some wagering, and with a lengthy delay, WSOP-related betting markets have emerged that offer insights into what the collective pokerverse (or at least the portion that places wagers) thinks about how the Main Event will go.
All odds cited taken from Bodog and current as of the time of this article; refer to Bodog’s WSOP Odds page for current numbers.
CHIPS AIN’T WORTH WHAT THEY USED TO BE
Even though he has what amounts to almost a 2-1 lead over his closest opponent and could double up the four shortest stacks and STILL have just about an average stack, the oddsmakers aren’t giving Darvin Moon a ton of credit. Yes, he is the favorite to win the Main Event at 17/10, but that’s the same odds you get for Moon finishing in 4th or 5th. By comparison, shortest stack James Akenhead, who has roughly 10% of Moon’s stack, is running at 7/4 to finish in 4th or 5th.
Moon does get some respect in a last longer scenario versus Phil Ivey – +250 on Ivey against -275 on Moon – but even that line is a bit gross for Moon when you consider he’s got a better than 6-1 edge on Ivey chip-wise.
More proof that the market prefers skill over stack: Steven Begleiter is getting the same 4/1 to win as Jeff Shulman to win. What’s the gap between Shulman’s experience (a long string of cashes and an appearance at the 2000 World Series of Poker Main Event Final Table) versus Begleiter’s (…) worth in terms of WSOP chips? About 10 million, as Shulman’s got 20 million to Begleiter’s 30 million heading into play.
Speaking of not getting respect…
ERIC BUCHMAN CAN’T GET NO RESPECT
He’s got a mountain of chips. He’s got arguably the best seat at the table, positionally-speaking. He’s got a ton of live experience and a long list of significant cashes that few at the table can match, including a 200k+ WSOP-C cash and plenty of deep WSOP runs.
So why is Buchman sitting at 3-1 to win the WSOP when Steven Begleiter, by all accounts a Moneymaker-esque amateur with 6 million less in chips and out of position to Buchman, gets just a slightly worse 4-1? As good as Ivey is, should he be a 4-1 with under 1/3rd of the chips Buchman has? And while Moon is sitting on a huge stack, should he really be at 17/10 when just a couple of significant pots with Buchman could reverse the lead?
Finally, does it really seem like Buchman and Begleiter have the same chance of being the first players to exit, with Bodog putting both at 10/1?
WHAT’S A DOUBLE UP?
Short stacks take it on the chin in the current odds scenario, even though tournament poker is a game where stacks go into the middle quickly, and players can move from worst to first (or at least into the stratosphere of the leader) with a double up or two.
Despite the fact that a double up would essentially get him to average, Antoine Saout is Bodog’s second favorite to exit the final table first at 23/10 (actual shortest stack James Akenhead is a slightly worse 2/1 despite having about 3 million chips less than Saout). On the other hand, Kevin Schaffel rates 4/1 for exiting first, even though a significant confrontation with any short stack (quite likely given the table positions) would basically cripple him.
YES, YOU CAN BET ON THAT
Bodog’s got over a dozen WSOP-related bets not referenced above, including those strictly for degens (What will be the suit of the final river card in the final hand of the 2009 Main Event?), those with a little national pride (Will the winning player of the 2009 WSOP be an American or a European?) and a variety of last longer and placement bets (Cada vs Schaffel with an even money line? Really?). View the complete list of available wagers here.
Check out our complete WSOP coverage here
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