Basic odds for all in situations in hold em
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If you play any form of tournament poker (especially SNGs or turbos), you’re going to find yourself facing various types of potential all-in situations. The first step in handling those situations properly is to know the fundamental odds involved. Below, we’ve listed the basic probabilities involved in common all in situations.
Understanding these odds is only a small part of making proper all-in decisions. You’ll also need to develop a good sense for putting your opponents on a range of possible hands and an appreciation for the impact of a broad array of other situational factors. That said, these numbers are still useful for newer players and an interesting reminder of the inescapable fact that you’re just never all that far ahead (or behind) in preflop all in situations.
For equity calculations, we suggest using PokerStove (read our review of Poker Stove here).
Two overs vs two unders
Two overcards will generally be a 65 / 35 favorite over two undercards. That gap closes as the undercards get connected and suited and the overcards become less so.
Sample matchups
K9o vs 76s = 58 / 41
QJs vs 98s = 66 / 34
AKs vs 32o = 67 / 33
An over and an under vs two mid cards
This matchup usually features an over-under running slightly ahead (roughly 57 / 43). The distance closes based on suitedness, connectedness and whether or not the opposing hands share cards needed to make straights.
Sample matchups
A2s vs T9o = 58 / 42
KTo vs QJs = 56 / 44
Q3o vs 87s = 52 / 48
An over and under vs a mid and an under
The over-under will be about a 60 / 40 favorite over the mid-under hand. That gap shrinks as the mid-under hand gets more suited an connected and the over-under becomes less so.
Sample matchups
A7s vs J4o = 66 / 34
K8o vs 97s = 56 / 44
AQo vs KJs = 59 / 41
A pair vs one over and one under
The pair is generally about a 70 / 30 favorite over the over-under. The over-under gets back to just about 2 /1 when it’s suited and connected.
Sample matchups
99 vs K7o = 72 / 28
99 vs T8s = 67 / 33
A pair vs two unders
The pair is about a 80 / 20 favorite over the two unders. Suited connectors that don’t share straight cards with the overpair are the best hand in this group to take up against an overpair.
Sample matchups
KK vs 87s = 77 / 23
KK vs QJs = 82 / 18
KK vs Q3o = 88 / 12
A pair vs an underpair
A larger pair is roughly a 80 / 20 favorite over a smaller pair (slightly more depending on whether or not the pairs share suits)
An over vs an under with one shared card
Generally referred to as a ‘dominated’ matchup. The dominating hand is actually usually only about a 70 / 30 favorite, with suitedness and connectedness having a reasonable impact on the gap. Dominated matches that feature two high-low hands are much closer due to how often they end up splitting the pot..
Sample matchups
KQo vs KJs = 69 / 31
AJs vs A8o = 74 / 26
A5o vs A3o = 56 / 44
ATo vs KTo = 74 / 26
ATo vs JTs = 68 / 32
KTo vs T9s = 67 / 33
