Bad Times to Bluff in No Limit Holdem

One of the beautiful aspects of no limit holdem is the relative ease [compared with limit hold em] with which you can pick up a pot while holding nada. I personally believe the importance of the bluff has been overstated by TV [after all, bluffs are exciting], but that’s another issue altogether. If you’re going to make bluffing a regular part of your NL game, here’s five situations where you should avoid pushing at the pot with a miss [this article does refer to cold bluffs, not semi-bluffs where you bet a low pair or a draw]:

1) One the flop: Anytime there are more than five players in an unraised pot. Even if you’re on the button and everyone checks to you, even if the board is the most ragged thing imaginable, I still don’t think it’s worth stealing here – especially not on the flop. The fact that it’s an unraised pot means two things – one, there’s not much money to steal, and two, you’re facing at least two random hands, maybe more. If the pot had been raised, you had position and your table image was very tight, this might be worth a shot, but still, it’s a marginal play at best. It may feel good to steal, but that doesn’t mean it’s profitable [in this scenario anyhow] long-term.

2) On the flop: Anytime the board shows two or more clear draws and there are more than 2 other players. By two clear draws I mean two to a flush and two connected, say a board of

9c 10h 4c

The problem here is there are simply too many reasons why your opponents might call, and it’s going to be tough for you to figure out how to act on the turn and river.

3) On the turn: Any time the board shows three or more clear draws, period. When the board is double suited and shows a straight draw or two, even if you’re heads up with an opponent, this is still a tough spot to bluff – if you’ve completely missed to this point, it’s hard for them not have something to call on – and again, with so many possibilities regarding their holdings, it’s going to very tough for you to decide how to proceed on the river when one of the multiple draws completes.

4) On the turn: Four or more players, everyone checked the flop and the middle flop card pairs. Anyone who turned trips here is probably going to check to you [if you have position] – don’t fall for the trap. If you’re out of position, the bluff makes a little more sense, since it doesn’t look like a bluff, but the number of players in the pot means there’s a good chance of you getting caught.

5) On the river: Three or more players, hand has been checked around, and a face card hits the river. You have position and everyone checks to you. Don’t bother bluffing, especially if there was already a face card on the flop. With three players in, someone is likely to be holding one of those cards [probably suited with a weak kicker] and is checking just because they know they have little to gain by betting. This is especially true if the river completes a runner draw – most players holding a single pair will be hoping to check the hand down, but will be willing to call a reasonable bet with their hand.

That’s just a quick starter list of some common scenarios where you might want to think twice before bluffing. Always remember that out of position bluffs are stronger and more deceptive, since people expect you to bluff in late position and are more likely to call with marginal holdings when you fire from the button. In a later article, we’ll discuss some situations where cold bluffs can be favorable plays – if you don’t mind losing huge bets every once in awhile.

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